{"id":48239,"date":"2026-01-15T14:02:10","date_gmt":"2026-01-15T14:02:10","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.spragueenergy.com\/?p=48239"},"modified":"2026-01-15T14:02:15","modified_gmt":"2026-01-15T14:02:15","slug":"oil-market-swings-on-middle-east-developments-and-rising-u-s-inventories","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.spragueenergy.com\/fr\/oil-market-swings-on-middle-east-developments-and-rising-u-s-inventories\/","title":{"rendered":"Oil Market Swings on Middle East Developments and Rising U.S. Inventories"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><strong>Recap<\/strong>:&nbsp; The oil market on Wednesday extended its gains and settled higher for a fifth consecutive session, only to erase all of its earlier gains in the post settlement period. The sharp sell off followed U.S. President Donald Trump\u2019s statement that killings in Iran were stopping, quelling market concerns of a possible military operation in Iran. In overnight trading, the crude market traded mostly sideways as its gains were limited by the large builds in crude stocks and products stocks reported by the API late Tuesday. However, the market traded higher after the U.S. late Tuesday urged its citizens to leave Iran immediately, while Iran warned U.S. allies in the Middle East it would strike U.S. bases on their soil if the U.S. attacked Iran. Also, the Pentagon advised some personnel to leave a U.S. military base in Qatar, further supporting the market. The crude market traded to $62.10 and traded sideways as it awaited for the release of the EIA\u2019s weekly petroleum stocks report and any further developments in the Middle East. The market remained in a sideways trading range following the release of the inventory report, which showed a build of 3.4 million barrels on the week. The February WTI contract settled up 87 cents at $62.02. However, the crude market later traded to a high of $62.36 before it retraced more than 38% of its move from a low of $55.76 to a high of $62.36 as it sold off to a low of $59.77 in the post settlement period as concerns of a military operation in Iraq dissipated. Meanwhile, the March Brent contract settled up $1.05 at $66.52. The product markets ended the session higher, with the heating oil market settling up 4.35 cents at $2.2819 and the RB market settling up 39 points at $1.8304.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Technical Analysis<\/strong>:&nbsp; The crude market will remain headline driven and will look to any further developments in Iran, as seen during Wednesday\u2019s session. It will remain under pressure if the situation in Iran is improving and the possibility of a U.S. military operation dissipates. The market will also look to any developments in the Russian war in Ukraine after Russia accused Ukraine of attacking an oil tanker in the Black Sea as well as the Venezuelan oil sales. The oil market is seen finding resistance at $62.36, $62.28, $62.59, $62.92, $63.26 followed by $64.19 and $64.97. Meanwhile, support is seen at $59.19, $59.06, $58.45, $58.28, $57.61 followed by $55.97 and $55.76.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Fundamental News<\/strong>:&nbsp; In its monthly report, OPEC forecast world oil demand in 2027 would increase at a similar rate to this year and data in the study indicated a close balance between supply and demand in 2026. OPEC said that demand would increase by 1.34 million bpd in 2027, a similar rate to the growth of 1.38 million bpd expected this year. It reported that OPEC+ crude output averaged 42.83 million bpd in December, down 238,000 bpd on the month. It forecast world demand for OPEC+ crude would average 43 million bpd in 2026, unchanged from a previous forecast, and is expected to average 43.6 million bpd in 2027.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Goldman Sachs is maintaining its forecast of stable Iranian crude production of 3.5 million bpd in 2026 following the Trump administration\u2019s announcement that any country that does business with Iran will be subjected to a tariff rate of 25% on any business conducted with the United States.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>IIR Energy said U.S. oil refiners are expected to shut in about 724,000 bpd of capacity in the week ending January 16<sup>th<\/sup>, decreasing available refining capacity by 450,000 bpd. Offline capacity is expected to increase to 1.1 million in the week ending January 23<sup>rd<\/sup>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Exxon Mobil is preparing to run Venezuelan crude oil at its 522,500 bpd Baton Rouge, Louisiana refinery. The refinery previously ran Venezuelan heavy sour crude, but has not since sanctions were imposed on Venezuela.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Chevron plans to run Venezuelan crude oil at its 356,440 bpd Pascagoula, Mississippi refinery. No date has been set for Venezuelan crude to arrive at the refinery.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Early<\/strong><strong> Market Call &#8211; as of 8:30 AM EDT<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>WTI &#8211; Feb $59.33, down $1.72<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>RBOB &#8211; Feb $1.7724, down 4.07 cents <\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>HO &#8211; Feb $2.2022, down 5.19 cents<\/strong><\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Recap:&nbsp; The oil market on Wednesday extended its gains and settled higher for a fifth consecutive session, only to erase all of its earlier gains in the post settlement period. [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":47407,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":true,"sfsi_plus_gutenberg_text_before_share":"","sfsi_plus_gutenberg_show_text_before_share":"","sfsi_plus_gutenberg_icon_type":"","sfsi_plus_gutenberg_icon_alignemt":"","sfsi_plus_gutenburg_max_per_row":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[21,23,20,1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-48239","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-crude","category-gasoline","category-heating-oil","category-market-insights"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v27.4 (Yoast SEO v27.4) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>The Oil Market Analysis: Gains and Losses Explained - Sprague Energy<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Explore the latest trends in the oil market as prices fluctuate amid geopolitical tensions and inventory reports.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.spragueenergy.com\/fr\/oil-market-swings-on-middle-east-developments-and-rising-u-s-inventories\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"fr_CA\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Oil Market Swings on Middle East Developments and Rising U.S. Inventories\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Explore the latest trends in the oil market as prices fluctuate amid geopolitical tensions and inventory reports.\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/www.spragueenergy.com\/fr\/oil-market-swings-on-middle-east-developments-and-rising-u-s-inventories\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"Sprague Energy\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2026-01-15T14:02:10+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2026-01-15T14:02:15+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/www.spragueenergy.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/8-1.png\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"250\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"250\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/png\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Emily Beckett\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"\u00c9crit par\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"Emily Beckett\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Estimation du temps de lecture\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"4 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\\\/\\\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"Article\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.spragueenergy.com\\\/oil-market-swings-on-middle-east-developments-and-rising-u-s-inventories\\\/#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.spragueenergy.com\\\/oil-market-swings-on-middle-east-developments-and-rising-u-s-inventories\\\/\"},\"author\":{\"name\":\"Emily Beckett\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.spragueenergy.com\\\/#\\\/schema\\\/person\\\/f16806fa4af9f2c44e5e1b0a75e5ace9\"},\"headline\":\"Oil Market Swings on Middle East Developments and Rising U.S. Inventories\",\"datePublished\":\"2026-01-15T14:02:10+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2026-01-15T14:02:15+00:00\",\"mainEntityOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.spragueenergy.com\\\/oil-market-swings-on-middle-east-developments-and-rising-u-s-inventories\\\/\"},\"wordCount\":673,\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.spragueenergy.com\\\/oil-market-swings-on-middle-east-developments-and-rising-u-s-inventories\\\/#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.spragueenergy.com\\\/wp-content\\\/uploads\\\/2025\\\/09\\\/8-1.png\",\"articleSection\":[\"Crude\",\"Gasoline\",\"Heating Oil\",\"Market Insights\"],\"inLanguage\":\"fr-CA\"},{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.spragueenergy.com\\\/oil-market-swings-on-middle-east-developments-and-rising-u-s-inventories\\\/\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.spragueenergy.com\\\/oil-market-swings-on-middle-east-developments-and-rising-u-s-inventories\\\/\",\"name\":\"The Oil Market Analysis: Gains and Losses Explained - 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