The Oil Market Retraced Some of its Previous Losses on Wednesday Amid Unexpected Draws Reported in Crude Stocks

Market Insights
Heating Oil
June 8, 2023

Recap:  The oil market retraced some of its previous losses on Wednesday amid unexpected draws reported in crude stocks. The crude market traded sideways in overnight trading as it traded towards the $72.00 level on the opening following the release of the API data which showed an unexpected draw of 1.7 million barrels in crude stocks. The market posted a low of $69.88 in overnight trading before it bounced higher and never looked back. The oil market was further supported by the EIA report, which showed a draw in crude stocks of over 450,000 barrels on the week. The crude market rallied to a high of $73.19 by mid-day before it erased some of its gains and traded in a sideways trading range ahead of the close. The July WTI contract settled up 79 cents at $72.53 and August Brent contract settled up 66 cents at $76.95. The product markets also ended the session higher, with the heating oil market settling up 3.4 cents at $2.4018 and the RB market settling up 7.69 cents at $2.6412.

Technical Analysis:  The oil market is seen trading sideways in its recent trading range from $75.06 to $70.00, as the market positions itself ahead of upcoming economic reports due out over the next few days and into next week ahead of the Federal Reserve’s policy meeting next Wednesday. The market is seen finding support at $71.01, $70.13, $70.00 followed by $67.51 and $67.03. Meanwhile, resistance is seen at its highs of $73.19 and $75.06 followed by $75.96, $76.49 and $76.74.

Fundamental News:  The EIA reported that U.S. crude oil stocks unexpectedly fell in the week ending June 2nd as refiners increased crude runs by 482,000 bpd and refinery utilization rates increased by 2.7% percentage points to 95.8%, the highest level since August 2019.  The EIA reported that U.S. crude oil field production increased by 200,000 bpd to 12.4 million bpd, the highest level since April 2020. Meanwhile, U.S. crude stocks in the SPR fell by 1.8 million barrels on the week to 353.6 million barrels.

IIR Energy reported that U.S. oil refiners are expected to shut in 347,000 bpd of capacity in the week ending June 9th, increasing available refining capacity by 78,000 bpd. Offline capacity is expected to decrease to 65,000 bpd in the week ending June 16th.

The Association of American Railroads reported that its weekly railcar loadings on major U.S. railroads in the week ending June 7th increased by 0.4% to 219,289. The number of railcar loadings transporting petroleum and petroleum products increased by 6.6% to 9,078.

The OECD said global economic growth will increase only moderately over the next year as the full effects of central bank rate hikes are felt, softening the increase from lower inflation. The OECD said the world economy is set to grow 2.7% this year, up from its previous forecast of 2.6% in March. It said that would be the lowest annual rate since the 2008-2009 global financial crisis with the exception of the pandemic-hit year of 2020. Growth would then accelerate only slightly next year to 2.9%, unchanged from March's forecast, as the impact of rate hikes by major central banks over the last year increasingly drags on private investment, starting with housing markets. The OECD forecast that inflation in the Group of 20 major economies would fall from 7.8% last year to 6.1% this year and 4.7% in 2024. The OECD forecast the U.S. economy would grow 1.6% this year before slowing to 1% in 2024, with the lagged effect of rate hikes hitting the world's biggest economy particularly hard. It had previously foreseen U.S. growth of 1.5% this year and 0.9% in 2024.

Early Market Call - as of 8:30 AM EDT

WTI - July $72.95, up 42 cents

RBOB - July $2.6544, up 1.32 cents

HO - July $2.4156, up 1.38 cents

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