Recap: The crude market rallied higher on Monday as the market weighed the prospect of a Ukraine peace deal and the possibility of a U.S. interest rate cut. On Monday, the crude market tested Friday’s low of $57.42 as it posted a low of $57.42 as the U.S. and Ukraine were continuing their talks for a second day to modify a U.S. peace proposal. However, as the market held support at its previous low, the market retraced its losses and rallied higher. The market was supported by the strength seen in the equities market amid increased expectations of a potential Fed rate cut in December. The January WTI contract rallied to a high of $58.94 ahead of the close and settled up 78 cents $58.84. The oil market continued to trend higher and posted a high of $59.06 in the post settlement period. The January Brent contract ended the session up 81 cents at $63.37. Meanwhile, the product markets settled in mixed territory, with the heating oil market settling down 5.03 cents at $2.4061 and the RB market settling up 1.32 cents at $1.8966.
Technical Analysis: The oil market is seen remaining range bound ahead of the release of the weekly petroleum stocks reports. The market will continue to look for further developments on a peace proposal to end the Russian war in Ukraine and will weigh any economic news following the market’s move higher on Monday in tandem with the equities market amid the increased expectations that the Fed will cut interest rates at its December meeting. The crude market is seen finding resistance at $59.06-$59.08, $59.61, $60.10, $60.14, $60.56, $60.70, $60.85, $61.01 and $61.18. Meanwhile, support is seen at $57.42, $57.38, $57.24, $56.33 and $55.99.
Fundamental News: The United States and Ukraine sought on Monday to narrow the gaps in a peace plan to end the war with Russia after agreeing to modify a U.S. proposal calling for concessions from Kyiv. The U.S. and Ukraine said in a joint statement they had drafted a “refined peace framework” after talks in Geneva on Sunday. The White House Press Secretary said the U.S. and Ukraine had productive talks and added that there remained just “a couple of points of disagreement.” She said there was no meeting scheduled this week between President Donald Trump and Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskiy.
The Kremlin said that a European counter-proposal to a U.S. 28-point peace plan for Ukraine was not constructive and that it simply did not work for Moscow. Russian President Vladimir Putin said that U.S. proposals for peace in Ukraine could be the basis of a resolution of the conflict but that if Kyiv turned down the plan then Russian forces would advance further.
Chinese state news agency Xinhua reported that China’s President Xi Jinping held a phone call with U.S. President Donald Trump on Monday.
JPMorgan forecast Brent crude at $57/barrel and West Texas Intermediate at $53/barrel in 2027, while keeping its 2026 estimates unchanged at $58/barrel and $54/barrel, respectively. JPMorgan expects global oil demand to increase by 900,000 bpd in 2025 to 105.5 million bpd. Similar gains are expected in 2026 before accelerating to 1.2 million bpd in 2027. Global oil supply is forecast to outpace demand, growing at three times the rate of demand in both 2025 and 2026 before slowing to about one-third of that pace in 2027. It said that about half of the supply gains will come from non-OPEC+ producers, driven by strong offshore projects and continued momentum in global shale output.
IIR Energy said U.S. oil refiners are expected to shut in about 187,000 bpd of capacity in the week ending November 28th, increasing available refining capacity by 458,000 bpd. Offline capacity is expected to fall to 54,000 bpd in the week ending December 5th.
Early Market Call – as of 8:15 AM EDT
WTI – Jan $57.98, down 91 cents
RBOB – Dec $1.8716, down 2.66 cents
HO – Dec $2.3576, down 6.34 cents
