Recap: The oil market settled slightly higher on Friday, up 0.14% on the day but was down 2.31% on the week after U.S. President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin on Thursday agreed to another summit to discuss Ukraine. This also follows the IEA’s forecast earlier in the week of an increase supply glut in 2026 and the EIA’s weekly inventory report released on Thursday that showed that crude stocks increased by a larger than expected 3.5 million barrels in the week ending October 10th. The crude market continued to trend lower in overnight trading and posted a low of $56.60. The market, however, bounced off that level and retraced some of its losses and traded a high of $57.72 early in the session ahead of a meeting between President Trump and Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelinskiy at the White House. The market settled in a sideways trading range from $57.16 to its high of $57.72 during the remainder of the session. The November WTI contract ended the session up 8 cents at $57.54 and the December Brent contract settled up 23 cents at $61.29. The product markets also settled higher, with the heating oil market settling up 2.65 cents at $2.18 and the RB market settling up 2.6 cents at $1.8377.
Technical Analysis: The crude market will look to any news developments for further direction. It will have to be seen whether the U.S.’ stance on Russia eases with an expected meeting between President Trump and Russia’s President to discuss the end of the war in Ukraine following talks with Ukraine’s President, who is seeking Tomahawk missiles from the U.S. and trying to secure a ceasefire with Russia. The market will also look to development on the trade tensions between the U.S. and China, which has added to concerns of an economic slowdown and lower energy demand. Following last week’s announcement of imposing escalated tariffs on Chinese imports, President Trump on Friday attempted to deescalate the situation stating that the proposed 100% tariffs on goods from China were unsustainable and would meet with China’s President in two weeks. The oil market is seen finding support at $56.60, $56.67, $56.29 and $55.70. Meanwhile, resistance is seen at $57.72, $59.01, $59.11, $59.42, $59.82, $60.14, and $60.51.
Fundamental News: Baker Hughes said U.S. energy firms this week added oil and natural gas rigs for the first time in three weeks. It said the oil and gas rig count increased by one to 548 in the week ending October 17th. Baker Hughes said oil rigs held steady at 418 this week, while gas rigs increased by one to 121, their highest level since August.
IIR Energy said U.S. oil refiners are expected to shut in about 1.3 million bpd of capacity in the week ending October 17th, increasing available refining capacity by 517,000 bpd. Offline capacity is expected to fall to 1.2 million bpd in the week ending October 24th and to 1.1 million in the week ending October 31st.
A fire broke out at BP’s 440,000 bpd Whiting refinery in Indiana and was extinguished as of Friday morning. The fire resulted from an operational incident. Earlier Wood Mackenzie reported that multiple units were offline at the refinery.
Trade sources and analysts said U.S. and European pressure on Asian buyers of Russian energy could restrict India’s oil imports from December, leading to cheaper supplies for China, while Japan is unlikely to halt its Sakhalin liquefied natural gas shipments for now. Indian sources said the cut was not visible yet, though it could be reflected in import numbers for December or January. Refiners had already placed orders for November loading that included some cargoes for December arrival as well. Consultancy FGE said it does not believe Indian can halt Russian crude purchases overnight, even if it has agreed to do so, as at least 700,000 bpd of India imports of Russian crude are on a term basis. It estimates that the maximum volume of Russian crude flows to India that is at risk is 800,000 bpd to 1 million bpd of spot volumes that India’s refiners import.
Early Market Call – as of 8:35 AM EDT
WTI – Nov $57.15, down 49 cents
RBOB – Nov $1.8282, down 51 points
HO – Nov $2.1916, up 1.19 cents
