Recap: The crude market on Thursday continued to trade higher as Iran increased its attacks on oil and transport facilities across the Middle East, increasing concerns of a prolonged conflict and potential disruptions to oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz. Explosive-laden Iranian boats appear to have attacked two fuel tankers in Iraqi waters, setting them ablaze and killing one crew member on Wednesday after projectiles struck four vessels in Gulf waters. The market seems to have dismissed the IEA’s release of oil reserves as it may only be a temporary solution, as disruptions to shipments through the Strait of Hormuz and production shut ins in some Middle Eastern countries could cause a longer term supply issue. The market was further supported by a statement by Iran’s new Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei that Iran will continue to fight and keep the Strait of Hormuz shut, adding that Iran’s neighbors should close all U.S. bases on their territory, which Iran would continue to attack. The oil market posted a low of $88.61 on the opening and never looked back as it continued to retrace Monday’s losses. The market retraced more than 38% of its move from a high of $119.48 to a low of $76.73 as it rallied to a high of $97.19 by midday. The market later erased some of its gains and settled in a sideways trading range during the remainder of the session amid the uncertainty over how long the Strait of Hormuz would remain closed to shipping. The April WTI contract settled up $8.48 at $95.73 and the May Brent contract settled up $8.48 at $100.46. The product markets ended the session sharply higher, with the heating oil market settling up 22.01 cents at $3.8989 and the RB market settling up $17.63 cents at $2.9646.
Technical Analysis: The oil market will remain well supported by the continuing conflict in the Middle East. While U.S. President Donald Trump has repeatedly attempted to calm energy markets this week by stating that the rally in prices will be short-lived, he has not stated how the war will end or presented a plan to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. President Trump has demanded Iran’s unconditional surrender and the power to determine its leaders. However, Iran remains defiant, with comments made by Iran’s new Supreme Leader reinforcing that Iran’s strategy is to impose a prolonged economic shock with the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. The crude market is seen finding support at $89.37, $88.61, $86.96, $84.55, $81.79 and $76.73, $74.97, $73.28, $70.41 and $69.20 to $67.83. Meanwhile, resistance is seen at $97.19, $98.11, $103.15, $104.85, $107.41, $116.75, its high of $119.48, and $130.50.
Fundamental News: The International Energy Agency said in its latest monthly oil market report that the war in the Middle East is creating the biggest oil supply disruption in history. Global supply is expected to drop by 8 million bpd in March due to the blocking of the Strait of Hormuz, since the U.S. and Israel began a campaign of airstrikes on Iran on February 28th. The IEA said Middle East Gulf countries have cut total oil production by at least 10 million bpd, a volume equal to almost 10% of world demand, as a result of the conflict. It added that without a rapid restart of shipping flows these losses were set to increase.
The Trump administration has told U.S. oil companies and shipping groups to prepare for a potential waiver of the century-old Jones Act governing domestic shipping.
Goldman Sachs raised its Brent and WTI crude oil price forecasts for the fourth quarter of 2026 to $71/barrel and $67/barrel, respectively, from $66/barrel and $62/barrel, as it sees longer disruption to oil flows in the Strait of Hormuz due to the U.S.-Israeli war on Iran. Goldman analysts said they now assume 21 days of low Strait of Hormuz oil flows at 10% of normal levels, followed by 30 days of gradual recovery, compared with their earlier expectation of a 10-day disruption. The bank expects Brent to average $98/barrel in March and April before falling to $71/barrel by the fourth quarter of the year. In an upside risk scenario, where flows through the strait are disrupted for a month, Goldman expects the March and April average to jump to $110/barrel before gradually declining to $76/barrel in the fourth quarter.
Early Market Call – as of 8:15 AM EDT
WTI – Apr $93.65, down $2.74
RBOB – Apr $2.9320, down 4.24 cents
HO – Apr $3.8477, down 10.25 cents
