Recap: The oil market continued to trend higher on Tuesday as the continuing attacks between the U.S. and Iran, increase concerns over oil flowing through the Strait of Hormuz with the number of tankers transiting the waterway falling to the lowest level in two months. Hostilities between the U.S. and Iran intensified this week, as U.S. President Donald Trump reinstated a blockade of Iranian shipping. The oil market traded higher in overnight trading and posted a high of $81.27. However, the market gave up some of its gains and sold off to a low of $77.84 by mid-day after U.S. President Trump said he decided to a replace his proposal to charge a 20% fee on all cargo shipped through the Strait of Hormuz with trade and investment deals with Gulf nations. He also said that the Strait of Hormuz was open to all ship traffic except for Iran. The crude market later settled in a sideways trading range during the remainder of the session. The August WTI contract ended the session up $1.20 at $79.34 and the September Brent contract settled up $1.43 at $84.73. The product markets ended the session higher, with the heating oil market settling up 19.07 cents at $4.0143 and the RB market settling up 6.1 cents at $3.2273.
Technical Analysis: The crude market will remain supported amid the renewed tensions between the U.S. and Iran, with the U.S. announcing on Tuesday afternoon that the military was launching more strikes against Iran. While President Trump has stated that the Strait of Hormuz is open, the recent attacks on tankers transiting the waterway is hindering the recovering in the number of tankers traveling through the strait. Shipping data shows that the number of tankers transiting the Strait of Hormuz fell to the lowest level in two months. The oil market is seen finding resistance at $81.27 to $81.68, where it would backfill a gap, $83.34, $85.61 followed by $91.62, $92.73 and $93.42. Meanwhile, support is seen at $77.84, $72.61, $70.77, $68.58, $67.82 and $67.04.
Fundamental News: Iran’s Deputy Foreign Minister, Kazem Gharibabadi, said the Strait of Hormuz is part of Iran’s national security and it will exercise its sovereignty over it, whatever the cost. He said Iran currently has no commitments when it comes to the Islamabad Memorandum of Understanding signed with the United States. Separately, Iran’s Revolutionary Guards said that as long as U.S. “evil actions” continue in the region, “not a single drop of oil and gas” would be exported from the region. IRGC also said U.S. “aggressions” would have no result other than to delay the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, adding that their attacks on what it described as U.S. facilities in Kuwait and Bahrain came in response to U.S. attacks on Iran.
Iran’s Oil Minister, Mohsen Paknejad, said the country’s oil exports are continuing as usual despite the cancellation last week of a 60-day waiver of U.S. oil sanctions. He said the oil ministry had maintained mechanisms for years to neutralize the impact of U.S. sanctions and that Iran’s oil exports would face no problems despite the removal of the waivers.
According to data and industry sources, daily crude loadings at Saudi Arabia’s Red Sea port of Yanbu are close to maximum levels this week as tensions with Yemen’s Houthi militia intensify and the kingdom seeks to maximize oil exports. According to Signal Ocean data, shipments from Yanbu reached 4.7 million bpd around July 13th, up from 3.36 million bpd around July 10th and broadly in line with 4.6 million bpd around July 2nd. Loadings have averaged above 4 million bpd since June, compared with 973,000 bpd around the same period 2025.
Iraq’s Prime Minister, Ali al-Zaidi, said that Iraq needed a fair share within OPEC after he was asked by reporters whether he was considering leaving the oil producer group.
Early Market Call – as of 8:25 AM EDT
WTI – Aug $79.85, up 2 cents
RBOB – Aug $3.2541, up 1.91 cents
HO – Aug $3.98, down 1.95 cents
