Recap: The crude market on Wednesday weighed the reports of progress towards possibly ending the war with Iran against reports that Yemen’s Iran-aligned Houthi rebels attacked a Saudi oil tanker in the Red Sea. In overnight trading, the oil market breached its previous low and sold off to a low of $74.24 after Qatar said on Tuesday that mediators were making progress towards ending the Iran war and President Donald Trump stated that talks with Iran were going well. However, the market bounced off its low and retraced its earlier losses amid reports that the Houthis launched a missile attack on a Saudi oil tanker off the coast of Yanbu, a key port for Saudi crude oil exports. The market traded to a high of $76.70 early in the morning. The crude market later erased some of its gains and traded back towards its low, in light of a 2.5 million barrel build in crude stocks and news that Iran and Oman agreed on the geographic coordinates for a shipping route through the Strait of Hormuz. The September WTI contract ended the session down 55 cents at $75.22, while the October Brent contract settled up 9 cents at $79.45. The product markets ended the session mixed with the heating oil market settling up 2.57 cents at $3.7962 and the RB market settling down 1.34 cents at $2.8388.
Technical Analysis: The oil market will likely trade sideways unless there is some major regarding the resolution of the war with Iran. While there seems to be some agreement between Iran and Oman on how to manage the Strait of Hormuz, Iran has stated that it would not guarantee security through the waterway. Meanwhile, the market will likely hold its support amid the reports of Yemen’s Iran-aligned Houthis launching a missile attack on a Saudi oil tanker off the Yanbu export port. The crude market is seen finding support at $74.24, $72.51, $70.68, $68.61, $67.82 and $67.12. Meanwhile, resistance is seen at $76.70, $79.06, $80.56, $82.05, $82.33, $86.87 to $87.68, $92.83 and $93.50.
Fundamental News: Shipping traffic at the key Middle Eastern maritime chokepoints of the Strait of Hormuz and the Bab el-Mandeb was little changed on Tuesday from the previous day. Shipping data from Kpler showed that eight vessels transited the Strait of Hormuz, including five tankers and three bulk carriers, the same as the previous day. Six of the vessels, three tankers and three bulk carriers, were entering the strait, while a gas carrier and a tanker were exiting. Also, according to LSEG and Kpler data, a liquefied natural gas tanker controlled by Abu Dhabi National Oil Co reappeared outside the Strait of Hormuz on Tuesday, carrying a cargo loaded from Das Island. The tanker is currently off the western coast of India. LSEG data shows a discharge location of India’s Dahej terminal in Gujarat, with an arrival date of August 5th. In the Bab el-Mandeb, 20 vessels crossed the strait on Tuesday, with 10 entering and 10 exiting the waterway, the same as the previous day. Six tankers, three dry bulk carriers and a gas carrier entered the Bab el-Mandeb, while seven tankers and three bulk carriers exited.
U.S. independent refiner Phillips 66 plans to operate refineries in the mid-90% range of their combined capacity in the third quarter of 2026. Phillips 66’s Chief Executive, Mark Lashier, said the company’s refineries ran above their faceplate capacity during the second quarter.
Phillips 66 has been granted about 20% of Jones Act waivers issued by the federal government to increase domestic transport of refined products and crude oil during the Iran war, according to Brian Mandell, executive vice president of marketing and commercial. A Jones Act waiver lifts requirements to send fuel on U.S.-crewed, U.S.-owned tanker ships between U.S. ports.
Early Market Call – as of 8:55 AM EDT
WTI – Sep $76.22, up $1.14
RBOB – Sep $2.8794, up 5.02 cents
HO – Sep $3.8104, up 2.76 cents
