Recap: The oil market continued on its upward trend in light of a larger than expected draw in crude stocks and the escalating conflict between Saudi Arabia and the Iran-backed Houthis. The crude market traded lower in overnight trading, posting a low of $93.58, on news that the U.S. was considering easing sanctions on some of Russia’s unregulated tankers, a move that could help lower freight rates and increase flexibility in diesel shipments. However, the market bounced off its low and never looked back. The market remained well supported by the ongoing conflict between Saudi Arabia and the Houthis. It extended its gains to over $3.20 to $98.32 on news that the Houthis fired missiles at the presidential palace complex in the city of Aden on Thursday. The November WTI contract settled up $2.88 at $97.97 and the December Brent contract settled down 14 cents at $105.92. Meanwhile, the product markets ended the session lower, with the heating oil market settling down 8.18 cents at $4.8456 and the RB market settling down 7.93 cents at $3.1802.
Technical Analysis: The crude market will remain well supported by the escalating conflict in the Middle East. The geopolitical risk premium is seen remaining in the market even though energy infrastructure has not been attacked by the Houthis over the last few days. The market is seen finding resistance at $98.32, $100.61 and $101.69. Meanwhile, support is seen at $93.58, $91.70, $89.61, $88.77, $87.96, $86.86, $85.92, $84.24, $82.47 and $82.17.
Fundamental News: The EIA reported that U.S. crude stocks and distillate inventories fell while gasoline inventories increased in the week ending October 9th. Crude inventories fell by 8.6 million barrels to 415.6 million barrels in light of Hurricane Isaias. Net US crude imports fell last week by 596,000 bpd. Crude stocks at the Cushing, Oklahoma increased by 1.9 million barrels in the week. Refinery crude runs increased by 135,000 bpd. U.S. gasoline stocks increased by 3.5 million barrels in the week to 208.3 million barrels due to weaker demand.
The International Energy Agency on Thursday agreed to release over 20 million barrels of diesel to the market as soon as possible and any oil remaining from a record emergency reserves release pledged in March to help supply and lower prices. The 32-nation IEA’s board met on Thursday to discuss the scale and timing of stock releases. The IEA said some members had already released more than they pledged in March and that others planned to do so. The IEA said about 330 million barrels have been released so far.
Three trade sources said Saudi Aramco has approached traders this week offering additional spot crude oil cargoes for delivery into Europe in late October and into mid-November.
Three trade sources said Saudi Aramco has approached traders this week offering additional spot crude oil cargoes for delivery into Europe in late October and into mid-November.
According to EPA data, the U.S. generated 1.19 billion ethanol blending credits in September, down from 1.29 billion in August. It reported that biodiesel blending credits increased to 788 million from 716 million in August.
The U.S. Climate Prediction Center forecast an 80% chance for at least a strong El Nino event to continue through the January-February-March 2027 season and favors an El Nino event of any strength to continue through the March-April-May period. It said the El Nino event continues to strengthen and an El Nino advisory remains in effect and is favored to continue through Spring 2027. The CPC’s temperature outlook for November-December-January favors above normal seasonal mean temperatures for Eastern Alaska, the northern tier and western third of the U.S., south Florida, the Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic regions. It said the highest odds of warmer than normal conditions are located over southeast Alaska, the upper Mississippi Valley and Great Lakes, while near normal seasonal average temperatures are favored for much of the southeast.
Early Market Call – as of 8:55 AM EDT
WTI – Nov $97.49, down 48 cents
RBOB – Nov $3.1756, down 46 points
HO – Nov $4.8232, down 2.21 cents
