Recap: The crude oil market ended the session lower as news of Russia’s President Vladimir Putin agreeing to meet U.S. President Donald Trump to discuss ending the war in Ukraine offset the market’s early gains on the news of a potential halt to India’s Russian oil imports. On Wednesday, U.S. President Donald Trump said India’s Prime Minister Narenda Modi pledged to stop buying oil from its main supplier, Russia. There were reports that some refiners were preparing to cut Russian oil imports, even though India’s government did not confirm President Trump’s claims. The crude market was well supported by the news and retraced some of Wednesday’s losses, posting a high of $59.11. However, the market erased its gains and traded lower ahead of the release of the EIA’s weekly petroleum inventory report following the API report late Wednesday that showed a large build in crude stocks of 7.4 million barrels for the week ending October 10th. The market later breached Tuesday’s low of $57.68 and sold off to a low of $57.26 ahead of the close, in light of the EIA report showing a larger than expected build in crude stocks of 3.524 million barrels. The market was also pressured by the news of a meeting between President Trump and Russia’s President Vladimir Putin to discuss the end of the war in Ukraine following a phone conversation. The November WTI contract ended the session down 81 cents at $57.46 and the December Brent contract settled down 85 cents at $61.06. The product markets also ended the session lower, with the heating oil market settling down 2.13 cents at $2.1535 and the RB market settling down 2.27 cents at $1.8117.
Technical Analysis: The oil market on Friday will likely retrace some of its losses as it weighs the possible halt in India’s oil imports from Russia against the builds reported in oil stocks. The market will also look for further developments on the war in Ukraine, with a meeting between President Trump and Ukraine’s President Volodymr Zelenskiy scheduled for Friday at the White House, following President Trump’s phone conversation with Russia’s President on Thursday, when they agreed to another summit to discuss ending the war in Ukraine. The crude market is seen finding support at $57.26, $56.91, $56.75, $56.67, $56.29, $56.07 and $55.30. Meanwhile, resistance is seen at $59.11, $59.42, $59.49, $59.82, $60.17, $60.45, $60.80, $61.67, $62.87 and $62.92.
Fundamental News: Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said that Russia relies on official public statements issued by New Delhi and Beijing regarding oil purchases after U.S. President Donald Trump said that India and China would stop buying Russian oil. India and China have not publicly confirmed President Trump’s assertion. Earlier, Russia’s Deputy Prime Minister, Alexander Novak, said Russia is confident its energy partnership with India will continue.
U.S. Treasury Secretary, Scott Bessent, said that he told Japanese Finance Minister Katsunobu Kato that the Trump administration expects Japan to stop importing Russian energy.
President Vladimir Putin said on Thursday that Russia will produce 510 million tons of oil in 2025, down 1% on the year. He said the volumes are in line with OPEC+ agreements which Russia continues to follow, fulfilling its obligations to balance the global oil market.
Britain targeted Russia’s two largest oil companies, Lukoil and Rosneft, and 44 shadow fleet tankers on Wednesday in what it described as a new bid to tighten energy sanctions and cut Russia’s revenues that help sustain its war in Ukraine. Lukoil and Rosneft were designated under Britain’s Russia sanctions laws for what London described as their role in supporting the Russian government.
The Climate Prediction Center issued its seasonal forecast, calling for warmer than normal conditions, from California, the southern Great Basin, the southern Rockies, the Southwest eastward to Texas, the Southeast and to the coastal mid-Atlantic.
Early Market Call – as of 9:00 AM EDT
WTI – Nov $57.50, up 8 cents
RBOB – Nov $1.8233, up 1.15 cents HO – Nov $2.1499, down 41 points
