Recap: The crude oil market posted an inside trading day and ended the session higher as Iran continued to show its defiance after more than two weeks of war. Iran renewed its strikes on oil facilities in the UAE, while a senior Iranian official said Iran’s Supreme Leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, had rejected de-escalation offers conveyed by intermediary countries. Meanwhile, Israel announced that it had killed Iran’s security chief, Ali Larijani, the most senior official targeted since the war’s first day. The oil market traded higher in overnight trading, posting a high of $98.42. However, the market erased its gains and sold off to a low of $93.83 by mid-morning. It later bounced off its low and traded back over the $95 level ahead of the close. The April WTI contract settled up $2.71 at $96.21 and the May Brent contract settled up $3.21 at $103.42. The product markets ended the session higher, with the heating oil market settling up 17.83 cents at $4.0158 and the RB market settling up 12.31 cents at $3.1234.
Technical Analysis: The oil market on Wednesday will likely continue to trend in its sideways trading range as the market continues to weigh the developments in the continuing conflict with Iran. While President Trump has stated that the U.S. will end its military operation soon, he stated that the U.S. is not ready to leave yet, leaving the market uncertain of when the war against Iran will end. The market will continue to watch for further defiance by Iran and any further news regarding Russia providing intelligence and military cooperation. The Wall Street Journal reported that Russia was providing satellite imagery and improved drone technology to aid Tehran’s targeting of U.S. forces in the region. The crude market is seen finding support at $93.83, $92.93, followed by $92.04, $88.61 followed by $81.79 and $76.73. Meanwhile, resistance is seen at $98.42, $102.44, $103.15, $104.85, $107.41, $116.75, $119.48 and $130.50.
Fundamental News: White House economic adviser, Kevin Hassett, said oil tankers are crossing the Strait of Hormuz and Iran’s actions to choke traffic through the shipping route have not hurt the U.S. economy, reiterating the Trump administration’s position that the war should be over in weeks, not months. He said there is concern that Asia may not be exporting as much refined oil to the U.S. to handle a decrease in supply from the Middle East.
Bloomberg News reported that the Trump administration intends to take additional steps to ease sanctions on Venezuela’s oil sector in an effort to increase crude production amid the ongoing Iran war. The moves, which could be announced as early as this week, include issuing more individual licenses allowing foreign companies to work in Venezuela without violating US sanctions.
Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi told U.N. Secretary-General Antonio Guterres that disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz cannot be addressed independently of the U.S.-Israeli war against Iran. He also called upon states and institutions concerned with global peace and security to condemn U.S.-Israeli attacks on his country.
A spokesperson for the Iranian parliamentary energy commission said Iran’s oil production and exports continue without interruption, adding that daily life is going on as usual on Kharg Island.
Iraq’s Oil Minister said Baghdad is talking to Iran about allowing some of the country’s oil tankers to pass through the Strait of Hormuz, as Iraq seeks to ease disruptions to crude exports following recent attacks on tankers in its own waters. Iraq’s Oil Minister, Hayan Abdel-Ghani, said the country is also working to restore an unused pipeline that would allow oil to be pumped directly to Turkey’s Ceyhan port without passing through the Kurdistan region. He said Iraq will complete an inspection of a 62-mile section of the pipeline within a week to enable direct exports from Kirkuk.
Early Market Call – as of 8:55 AM EDT
WTI – Apr $97.99, up $1.97
RBOB – Apr $3.2124, up 7.31 cents
HO – Apr $4.1935, up 19.92 cents
