Recap: The crude market retraced its previous losses as it rallied more than 4.5% as the talks between Russia and Ukraine ended with no breakthrough on Wednesday. Also, while tensions appeared to have eased between the U.S. and Iran after Iran’s Foreign Minister said the country had reached an understanding on the main guiding principles of their nuclear talks, the market was well supported by the news that Iran and Russia are expected to conduct navy drills in the Sea of Oman and the northern Indian Ocean on Thursday. The market posted a low of $62.12 on the opening and remained within Tuesday’s trading range as the market awaited the outcome of the trilateral talks between the U.S., Russia and Ukraine. However, the market breached its previous high and extended its gains to over $3 as it rallied to a high of $65.45 ahead of the close. The March WTI contract settled up $2.86 at $65.19 and later continued to trend higher in the post settlement period, when it posted a new high of $65.56. The April Brent contract settled up $2.93 at $70.35. The product markets also ended the session higher, with the heating oil market settling up 12.81 cents at $2.5187 and the RB market settling up 5.36 cents at $1.9680.
Technical Analysis: The oil market will remain headline driven amid the continuing geopolitical tensions between the U.S. and Iran and Russian war in Ukraine. The market will also look for further direction from the weekly petroleum stocks reports, which are expected to show builds in crude stocks of over 2.5 million barrels in the week ending February 13th. The crude market is seen finding resistance at $65.56, $65.83, $66.11 and $66.48. Meanwhile, support is seen at $62.12, $61.87, $61.12, $60.66, $60.14, $59.52, $59.29 and $58.96.
Fundamental News: The secretary of Ukraine’s National Security and Defense Council, Rustem Umerov, said the second day of U.S.-mediated peace negotiations between Russia and Ukraine in Geneva were substantive and there was progress. He said a number of issues were clarified and added that Ukraine’s goal remained a just and sustainable peace. Separately, Russia’s chief negotiator Vladimir Medinsky said that U.S.-mediated peace talks between Russia and Ukraine in Geneva had been difficult but business-like, and that a new round of talks would be held soon. Later, White House spokeswoman, Karoline Leavitt, said the U.S. has made meaningful progress in talks this week to bring an end to the war in Ukraine and more discussions are expected in the near future.
White House spokeswoman, Karoline Leavitt, said the U.S. has many arguments to justify a strike on Iran, but added that Tehran would be wise to reach an agreement to avoid any conflict.
IIR Energy reported that U.S. oil refiners are expected to shut in about 1.17 million bpd of capacity in the week ending February 20th, increasing available refining capacity by 410,000 bpd. Offline capacity is expected to fall to 757,000 bpd in the week ending February 27th.
PBF Energy reported an unplanned flaring event at its 160,000 bpd Torrance, California refinery.
Phillips 66 and Citgo Petroleum are seeking to buy heavy crude directly from Venezuela’s PDVSA starting in April to maximize profits, rather than purchasing through trading houses and U.S. oil major Chevron. Sources stated that Phillips 66 is seeking compliance and internal clearance to purchase directly from PDVSA. Once the company is ready, it plans to charter tankers to load the crude at PDVSA’s terminals.
Early Market Call – as of 7:05 AM EDT
WTI – Mar $66.20, up $1.12
RBOB – Mar $1.9878, up 1.98 cents
HO – Mar $2.5638, up 4.60 cents
