Recap: The crude market treaded water on Wednesday with light volume trading ahead of the Thanksgiving Day holiday after it fell to a one-month low in the previous session. The market remained focused on the developments surrounding the U.S. peace plan to end the war in Ukraine after Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said he was ready to advance a U.S. backed framework. The oil market posted a low of $57.66 in overnight trading and retraced some of its losses as it traded to a high of $58.43 in afternoon trading. This was despite the EIA report showing builds across the board, with a larger than expected build of 2.8 million barrels in crude stocks. The market later retraced some of its gains ahead of the close. The December WTI contract settled up 70 cents at $58.65 and the December Brent contract settled up 65 cents at $63.13. The product markets ended the session in mixed territory, with the heating oil market settling down 2.83 cents at $2.3255 and the RB market settling up 3.18 cents at $1.8890.
Technical Analysis: The oil market is seen remaining in its recent trading range and will continue to look for any news regarding a peace deal between Ukraine and Russia, as any deal would likely end the Western sanctions on Russian energy exports. The market remains fundamentally skewed to the downside, with traders remaining concerned about an oversupply. The market will also look to the outcome of the OPEC+ meeting scheduled for Sunday, when the producer group is expected to leave its output unchanged. The crude market is seen finding resistance at $58.46, $58.91, $58.96, $59.06, $59.33, $59.47, $60.03, $60.10, $60.47, $60.70, $60.85 followed by $61.01, $61.18, $61.60 and $61.84. Support is seen at $57.66, $57.10, $56.33, $55.99 followed by $55.41, $55.33 and $54.72.
Fundamental News: Kremlin aide, Yuri Ushakov, said that the latest U.S. peace plan for Ukraine required “serious analysis” by Moscow and had not been discussed between U.S. and Russian officials at a meeting in Abu Dhabi during the week ending November 28th.
Goldman Sachs estimate downside risks to crude prices and especially refined oil product prices if sanctions on Russia’s oil sector were to be lifted. It said its base case still assumes a status quo for sanctions on Russian oil, an extension of the recent downward trend in Russia’s production and a decline in Brent and WTI crude prices to $56/barrel and $52/barrel in 2026 on strong supply outside of Russia. It estimates $4-$5 of downside to its Brent/WTI 2026 price forecast from a potential peace deal, which could support a gradual recovery in Russia’s production and increase landed oil inventories in the OECD pricing centers if Russian oil on water moderates. It said the immediate downside to crude prices from a potential deal is modest because the market is already pricing in some probability of a deal and because it would likely take time for Russia’s production to recover.
Baker Hughes reported that U.S. energy firms this week cut the number of oil and natural gas rigs operating for the first time in four weeks. The oil and gas rig count fell by 10 to 544 in the week ending November 26th, the lowest level since September. Baker Hughes said oil rigs fell by 12 to 407 this week, their lowest level since September 2021, while gas rigs increased by 3 to 130, their highest level since July 2023.
IIR Energy said U.S. oil refiners are expected to shut in about 187,000 bpd of capacity in the week ending November 28th, increasing available refining capacity by 458,000 bpd.
BP’s 440,000 bpd refinery in Whiting, Indiana has returned to normal operations following a fire and a power outage in October.
Early Market Call – as of 8:40 AM EDT
WTI – Jan $58.90, up 43 cents
RBOB – Jan $1.8395, up 1.78 cents
HO – Jan $2.3250, up 2.01 cents
