Recap: The crude market ended the session lower after Israel and the Palestinian militant group Hamas signed a ceasefire agreement. The market was pressured in overnight trading following the announcement that Israel and Hamas agreed to the ceasefire deal on Wednesday, under which Israel will partially withdraw from Gaza and Hamas will free hostages it captures in the attack that precipitated the war, in exchange for prisoners held by Israel. The deal could ease tensions in the Middle East, with the possibility of a decrease in Houthis’ attacks in the Red Sea and increase the likelihood of a nuclear deal with Iran. The oil market retraced more than 38% of its move from a low of $60.40 to a high of $62.92 as it traded to $61.78. However, the market bounced off that level and retraced all of its overnight losses and posted a high of $62.87. The market later once again traded lower and extended its losses to $1.16 as it posted a low of $61.39 in afternoon trading after Israel and Hamas signed the ceasefire agreement. The crude market retraced nearly 62% of its recent rally previously mentioned and settled in a sideways trading range ahead of the close. The November WTI contract ended the session down $1.04 at $61.51 and sold off further to a low of $61.25 in the post settlement period. The December Brent contract ended the session down $1.03 at $65.22. The product markets ended the session in negative territory, with the heating oil market settling down 1.1 cents at $2.2803 and the RB market settling down 2.69 cents at $1.8826.
Technical Analysis: The market is seen remaining in its recent trading range as the market remains cautious and awaits to see if the ceasefire deal holds. The market will also look to any news regarding further easing of tensions in the region and weigh that against the lack of progress in a ceasefire deal between Russia and Ukaine. The crude market is seen finding support at $61.25, $60.72, $60.55 and $60.40. Meanwhile, resistance is seen at $62.87, $62.92, $63.26, $64.12, $65.40 and $66.42.
Fundamental News: Israel and the Palestinian militant group Hamas signed an agreement on Thursday to cease fire and free Israeli hostages in exchange for Palestinian prisoners, in the first phase of U.S. President Donald Trump’s initiative to end the war in Gaza. Officials on both sides confirmed they had signed the deal following indirect talks in Egypt. Under the deal, the biggest step yet towards peace, fighting will cease, Israel will partially withdraw from Gaza and Hamas will free hostages it captured in the attack that precipitated the war, in exchange for prisoners held by Israel. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s office said the ceasefire would take effect once the agreement is ratified by his government, which would convene after a security cabinet meeting on Thursday. An Israeli government spokeswoman, confirming the deal had been signed, said the ceasefire would go into force within 24 hours of the cabinet meeting. After that 24-hour period, the hostages held in Gaza will be freed within 72 hours. An Israeli official said all 20 Israeli hostages still believed to be alive in Gaza after being seized by Hamas in its attack on Israel on October 7, 2023, would be released. Egyptian state-affiliated TV al-Qahera news reported the agreement on the first stage of U.S. President Donald Trump’s plan for ending the war between Israel and Hamas in Gaza went into effect on Thursday morning. The next phase of President Trump’s plan calls for an international body led by Trump and including former British Prime Minister Tony Blair to play a role in Gaza’s post-war administration. Arab countries which back the plan say it must lead to eventual independence for a Palestinian state, which Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has stated will never happen.
President Donald Trump said that the Gaza hostages should be released on Monday or Tuesday and that he hopes to attend a signing ceremony in Egypt. He said he believed it will lead to “lasting peace.” On Thursday, President Trump also said his administration would work with Iran and would like to see them be able to rebuild their country, adding that Tehran acknowledged that they are in favor of the Israel, Hamas ceasefire and hostage deal.
Early Market Call – as of 8:25 AM EDT
WTI – Nov $60.60, down 92 cents
RBOB – Nov $1.8652, down 1.34 cents
HO – Nov $2.2617, down 1.47 cents
