Recap: The crude market retraced some of its recent gains as the market focused on the news of U.S. special envoy, Steve Witkoff, and President Trump’s son-in-law Jared Kushner meeting Russia’s President Vladimir Putin for talks on a possible way to end the war in Ukraine. This followed warnings by Russia’s President to European powers and threats to sever Ukraine’s access to the sea. However, the market remained supported by the increasing tension between the U.S. and Venezuela and the impact of the Ukrainian drone attacks on Russian energy infrastructure. The oil market posted a high of $59.67 on the opening before it erased some of its recent gains as it sold off to a low of $58.28 by mid-morning. The market later bounced off its low and traded in a sideways trading range during the remainder of the session. The January WTI contract settled down 68 cents at $58.64 and the February Brent contract settled down 72 cents at $62.45. The product markets ended the session in negative territory, with the heating oil market settling down 2.73 cents at $2.3127 and the RB market settling down 3.86 cents at $1.8303.
Technical Analysis: The oil market is seen remaining in its recent trading range amid the mixed rhetoric regarding Russia’s oil. The market will look to the outcome of the U.S.-Russian meeting after Russian President Vladimir Putin’s comments signaled that a peace deal may not be as close as the market would hope for. The crude market will also be driven by the latest weekly petroleum stocks reports, which are expected to show draws in crude stocks and builds in product stocks. The market is seen finding resistance at $59.67, $59.97, $60.03, $60.10, $60.29, $60.70, $60.85, $61.01, $61.18, $61.60 and $61.84. Meanwhile, support is seen at $58.28, $57.66, $57.10, $56.33 and $55.99.
Fundamental News: Russian President Vladimir Putin met U.S. President Donald Trump’s special envoy Steve Witkoff and son-in-law Jared Kushner in the Kremlin on Tuesday for talks on a possible way to end its war with Ukraine. The Kremlin said the meeting concluded after more than four hours. Ahead of the meeting, Russian President Vladimir Putin said that Russia did not want a war with European powers but that if Europe did want a war then Russia was ready right now to fight. He said that European powers were making demands on a possible peace settlement for Ukraine that Moscow considers absolutely unacceptable. Russia’s President Vladimir Putin threatened to sever Ukraine’s access to the sea in response to drone attacks on tankers of Russia’s “shadow fleet” in the Black Sea. He said Russia would intensify strikes on Ukrainian facilities and vessels, and would take measures against tankers of countries that help Ukraine. He called recent attacks on tankers near Turkey piracy and said Russia would intensify strikes on Ukrainian facilities and vessels.
The Caspian Pipeline Consortium aims to complete repairs on its third single point mooring (SPM-3) at its Black Sea terminal ahead of schedule, seeking to restore full CPC Blend oil export capacity after a drone attack damaged one of its other moorings. SPM-3, which has been undergoing maintenance since mid-November, is now expected to return to operation within the next seven days. CPC resumed limited loadings from the remaining operational mooring on Monday. It is currently operating at just over half its normal capacity. Separately, Russia’s Transneft said that loadings from the second point mooring of the Caspian Pipeline Consortium had been halted indefinitely.
According to sources, Venezuela’s President Nicolas Maduro is running out of options to step down and leave his country under U.S.-guaranteed safe passage, following a short call with U.S. President Donald Trump last month where President Trump refused a series of requests from the Venezuelan leader. President Trump told Venezuela’s President he had a week to leave Venezuela for the destination of his choice alongside his family members. The call, on November 21st, came after months of increasing U.S. pressure on Venezuela. That safe passage expired on Friday, prompting President Trump to declare on Saturday that Venezuela’s airspace was closed.
Early Market Call – as of 8:30 AM EDT
WTI – Jan $59.37, up 78 cents
RBOB – Jan $1.8454, up 1.73 cents
HO – Jan $2.2973, down 18 points
