Recap: The crude oil market on Monday posted an inside trading day following a more than 4% loss on Friday, as the market focused on possible talks between U.S. President Donald Trump and China’s President Xi Jinping that could ease trade tensions between the two countries. Trade tensions increased last week after China expanded its rare earth export controls and in response, U.S. President Trump said he would impose 100% tariffs on China’s U.S. bound exports. The market retraced some of its previous losses as President Trump sounded more conciliatory on Sunday, stating that everything would be fine and the U.S. did not want to “hurt” China. Market sentiment was also supported by Hamas freeing the last 20 surviving Israeli hostages on Monday under the U.S. brokered ceasefire deal. The crude market opened at a low of $59.00 on Sunday and retraced some of its previous losses as it posted a high of $60.17 in overnight trading. The market later settled in a sideways trading range during the remainder of the session. The November WTI contract settled up 59 cents at $59.49 and the December Brent contract settled up 59 cents at $63.32. The product markets ended the session higher, with the heating oil market settling up 4.53 cents at $2.2497 and the RB market settling up 2.34 cents at $1.8438.
Technical Analysis: The oil market on Tuesday will likely continue to trade in its sideways trading range following the volatility late last week. The market will look to further developments in the Middle East, in light of the ceasefire deal between Israel and Hamas, and will continue to look for developments on the trade tensions with China as well as the geopolitical concerns over the ongoing war in Ukraine. The market will also look to developments regarding Iran’s nuclear program following President Trump’s comments during his speech to Israel’s parliament on Monday. The crude market is seen finding support at $59.00, $58.22, $57.71, $57.50, $57.03 and $55.30. Meanwhile, resistance is seen at $60.17, $60.52, $61.09, $61.67, $62.87 and $62.92.
Fundamental News: Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said he was committed to peace. Addressing Israel’s parliament alongside U.S. President Donald Trump, Israel’s Prime Minister praised the U.S. president for helping broker the first phase of a Gaza deal that saw the return of all living Israeli hostages. U.S. President Donald Trump told Israel’s parliament that peace had arrived in the Holy Land before departing for a summit in Egypt intended to cement the truce between Israel and Hamas. He arrived in the Egyptian beach resort of Sharm el-Sheikh about an hour before sundown for the summit of more than 20 world leaders, which President Trump chaired alongside Egypt’s President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi.
Earlier, the Israeli military said it had received all 20 living hostages released by Palestinian militant group Hamas Monday, a major step towards ending two years of war in Gaza as U.S. President Donald Trump, who helped broker the truce, proclaimed it was “a great day”.
OPEC made no changes on Monday to its relatively high global oil demand growth forecasts for this year and next, and implied the oil market will see a much smaller supply deficit in 2026 as the wider OPEC+ group pushes ahead with output increases. In its monthly report, OPEC said the world economy was maintaining a solid growth trend. It maintained its forecasts for global oil demand to increase by 1.3 million bpd this year and by a slightly faster rate in 2026. OPEC said that while demand is seen as steady, OPEC+ in September raised crude output by 630,000 bpd to 43.05 million bpd, reflecting its earlier decisions to increase output quotas. Expected demand for OPEC+ crude at an average 43.1 million bpd implies that the world market will see a deficit of 50,000 bpd if the wider group keeps pumping at September’s rate. Last month’s report implied a deficit of 700,000 bpd in 2026 if OPEC+ kept pumping at August’s rate.
Early Market Call – as of 8:50 AM EDT
WTI – Nov $58.05, down $1.51
RBOB – Nov $1.8193, down 2.81 cents
HO – Nov $2.1983, down 5.29 cents
