Recap: The oil market on Thursday settled in negative territory on expectations that OPEC+ producers will increase their output targets at their meeting on Sunday and on an unexpected build in crude inventories. The oil market posted a high of $63.84 in overnight trading and continued on a downward trend. It breached a support line $63.73 and retraced more than 62% of its move from a low of $61.29 to a high of $66.03 as it sold off to a low of $62.72 on the expectations that OPEC+ will consider further increases to production in October at its meeting this weekend. The market began retracing some of its losses ahead of the release of the EIA’s weekly petroleum stocks report, which showed an unexpected build in crude stocks of over 2.4 million barrels on the week. The crude market later settled in a sideways trading range during the remainder of the session. The October WTI contract settled down 49 cents at $63.48 and the November Brent contract settled down 61 cents at $66.99. The product markets ended the session lower, with the heating oil market settling down 3.02 cents at $2.3307 and the RB market settling down 25 points at $2.0095.
Technical Analysis: The crude market on Friday is seen retracing some of its losses and trade within its recent trading range ahead of the OPEC+ meeting scheduled for Sunday. The market is seen finding support at its low of $62.72, $61.83, $61.65, $61.45 and $61.29. Meanwhile, resistance is seen at $63.84, $63.98, $64.38, $64.77, $65.72, $66.03, $66.56 and $68.46.
Fundamental News: In a phone interview with CBS News, U.S. President Donald Trump said he remains committed to pursuing a peace agreement between Russia and Ukraine despite uncertainty over the prospect of face-to-face talks between Russia’s Vladimir Putin and Ukraine’s Volodymyr Zelenskiy. President Trump said he is unhappy with the carnage between Russia and Ukraine but will keep pushing for a peace agreement. Earlier on Wednesday, President Trump said he plans to hold talks about the war in Ukraine in the coming days. A White House official said Trump is expected to speak on the phone on Thursday with Ukraine’s President. Russia’s President stated on Wednesday he is ready to meet with Ukraine’s President if he came to Moscow but that any such meeting had to be well prepared and lead to tangible results. Ukraine’s Foreign Minister dismissed the suggestion of Moscow as a venue for such a meeting.
French President Emmanuel Macron said twenty-six nations have pledged to provide postwar security guarantees to Ukraine, which will include an international force on land and sea and in the air after a summit meeting of Kyiv’s allies on Thursday. The French President said he, fellow European leaders and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy held a call with U.S. President Donald Trump after their summit and U.S. contributions to the guarantees would be finalized in the coming days.
Goldman Sachs in a research note to clients said it sees “the current oversupply in oil markets intensifying” and is forecasting Brent prices reaching the low $50s in late 2026.
Russian Deputy Prime Minister, Alexander Novak, said that there is no set agenda for the next OPEC+ meeting, but participants always review the current situation and forecasts. He said “Based on that, we decide issues on the spot.” On Wednesday, sources said eight OPEC+ members are expected to consider further raising oil production at a meeting on Sunday.
According to a Reuters survey, OPEC’s oil output increased further in August to 27.84 million bpd, up 360,000 bpd from July’s revised total, with the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia making the largest increases. Under an agreement by eight OPEC+ members covering August output, the five of them that are OPEC members, Algeria, Iraq, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia and the UAE, were to increase output by 416,000 bpd before the effect of compensation cuts totaling 178,000 bpd for Iraq, Kuwait and the UAE. According to the survey, the actual increase by the five was 310,000 bpd.
Early Market Call – as of 8:45 AM EDT
WTI – Oct $62.65, down 69 cents
RBOB – Oct $1.9740, down 3.02 cents
HO – Oct $2.3049, down 2.3 cents
