Recap: The oil market on Tuesday posted an inside trading day as traders weighed the
possibility that U.S. efforts to bring Russia and Ukraine toward a peace agreement will lead to
an easing of sanctions on Russian oil. Following a White House meeting on Monday with
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy and European allies, U.S. President Donald Trump
announced that he had spoken with Russian President Vladimir Putin and said arrangements
were being made for a meeting between Russia’s President and Ukraine’s President, which
could lead to a trilateral summit involving all three leaders. The apparent movement in
negotiations fueled renewed hopes for an end to the war. The crude market posted a high of
$63.39 on the opening before it started to erase its previous gains. The market sold off to a
low of $62.25 ahead of the close. The September WTI contract settled down $1.07 at $62.35
and the October Brent contract settled down 81 cents at $65.79. The product markets ended
the session in mixed territory, with the heating oil market settling up 1.08 cents at $2.2511
and the RB market settling down 97 points at $2.089.
Technical Analysis: The crude market will continue to trade sideways and remain headline
driven as the market awaits further developments on the possible face to face talks between
the leaders of Russia and Ukraine. The market will likely be driven by the weekly petroleum
stocks reports, which are expected to show draws in crude stocks of 1.8 million barrels in
crude stocks. The market is seen finding support at its low of $62.38, $62.18, $61.94, $61.19,
$60.86, $60.52, $59.80 and $59.25. Resistance is seen at $63.39, $63.79, $64.15, $64.34,
$64.44, $64.58 and $65.11. Further resistance is seen at $65.21, $66.23, $66.75 and $67.24.
Fundamental News: U.S. President Donald Trump said he hoped Russia’s Vladimir Putin would
move forward on ending the war in Ukraine but conceded that the Kremlin leader may not
want to make a deal at all, adding this would create a “rough situation” for President Putin.
President Trump said he expected that Putin’s course of action would become clear in the next
couple of weeks. He also again ruled out American boots on the ground in Ukraine and gave no
specifics about the security guarantees he has previously said Washington could offer Kyiv
under any post-war settlement. Ukraine and its European allies have been buoyed by Trump’s
promise of security guarantees to help end the war during an extraordinary summit on
Monday but face many unanswered questions, including how willing Russia will be to play ball.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy hailed Monday’s talks at the White House with the
U.S. President as a “major step forward” towards ending the conflict and towards setting up a
trilateral meeting with Russia President and President Trump in the coming weeks. He said
that security guarantees for Ukraine will likely be worked out within 10 days. Russia has made
no explicit commitment to a meeting between Russia’s President and Ukraine’s President.
Russia’s Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said that Moscow did not reject any formats for
discussing the peace process in Ukraine but any meeting of national leaders “must be
prepared with utmost thoroughness”. He said Russia remained committed to efforts aimed at
resolving the conflict in Ukraine, including both bilateral and trilateral formats.
California Attorney General Rob Bonta and other Democratic state attorneys general urged the
Trump administration to abandon its plan to rescind the long-standing finding that greenhouse
gas emissions endanger human health, removing the legal foundation for all U.S. greenhouse
gas regulations. If finalized, the Environmental Protection Agency repeal would end current
limits on greenhouse gas pollution from vehicle tailpipes, power plants, smokestacks and other
sources, and hamper future U.S. efforts to combat global warming.
Early Market Call – as of 8:40 AM EDT
WTI – Sep $63.15, up 64 cents
RBOB – Sep $2.0981, up 71 points
HO – Sep $2.2731, up 1.64 cents
