Recap: The crude market broke out of its recent sideways trading range and rallied higher on Friday amid the escalating attacks across the Gulf, with shipping threatened by a potential Red Sea closure in addition to the continuing closure of the Strait of Hormuz. The head of the IEA, Fatih Birol stated on Thursday that “Oil security is still a critical issue.” On Friday, Iran launched new strikes on U.S. facilities in the Middle East on Friday, including the first direct attack in Syria, after a sixth straight night of U.S. strikes on Iranian military facilities. On Thursday afternoon, U.S. Central Command said that U.S. forces began a new wave of strikes against Iran to further degrade Iranian military capabilities. The market was also well supported amid the news that Iran has urged the Houthi militants to close the Bab al-Mandab route if the U.S. strikes Iran’s power infrastructure. The oil market traded sideways in overnight trading, posting a low of $78.61. However, the market bounced off its low and traded higher throughout the session. It rallied to a high of $82.76 ahead of the close. The August WTI contract settled up $3.54 at $82.49, while the September Brent contract settled up 3.87 at $88.10. The product markets ended the session higher, with the heating oil market settling up 3.39 cents at $4.0646 and the RB market settling up 1.08 cents at $3.3927.
Technical Analysis: The oil market is seen remaining well supported as long as the U.S. and Iran continue to launch new military strikes against each other. Also, the continued decline in tanker traffic in the Strait of Hormuz amid its closure and the threat of targeting the Bab el-Mandeb Strait will add to its upside momentum. The crude market is seen finding resistance at $82.76, $83.34, $85.61 followed by $91.62, $92.73 and $93.42. Meanwhile, support is seen at $78.61, $78.58, $78.19, $77.84 followed by $72.61 and $70.77.
Fundamental News: Shipping data showed that three commodity vessels crossed the Strait of Hormuz on Thursday, the fewest daily transits since May, with most ships halting or making U-turns after recent Iranian attacks on vessels and the resumption of a U.S. blockade on Iran-related shipping.
The United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations agency said a tanker was hit by an unknown projectile on Thursday while sailing about 19 nautical miles east of Khasab, Oman, on Friday. The crew were reported safe and no environmental impact was reported.
Iran’s Tasnim news agency reported that a Thai-flagged ship was targeted in the Strait of Hormuz on Friday after it allegedly ignored warnings and attempted to pass without permission from Iran’s Revolutionary Guards navy. A source said the vessel was confronted by the IRGC navy and targeted.
Baker Hughes reported that U.S. energy firms this week added rigs for a fifth consecutive week for the first time since early June, increasing the total count to its highest level since April 2025. The total rig count increased by seven to 588 in the week to July 17th. Baker Hughes said oil rigs increased by seven to 452 this week, the highest level since May 2025, while gas rigs held at 126 and other miscellaneous rigs held at 10.
IIR Energy said U.S. oil refiners are expected to shut in about 200,000 bpd of capacity in the week ending July 17th, increasing available refining capacity by 70,000 bpd. Offline capacity is expected to fall to 89,000 bpd in the week ending July 24th and further to 66,000 bpd in the subsequent week.
Early Market Call – as of 8:10 AM EDT
WTI – Aug $81.97, down 50 cents
RBOB – Aug $3.3895, down 15 points HO – Aug $4.0946, up 1.66 cents
