Recap: The oil market on Thursday retraced its previous losses as traders weighed the potential impact of the upcoming U.S.-Russia talks on Russian crude flows, after U.S. President Donald Trump warned of “severe consequences” for Russia if it does not agree to peace. The oil market traded sideways and posted a low of $62.58 in overnight trading. However, the market bounced off that level and extended its gains throughout the session, posting a high of $64.04 ahead of the close. The uncertainty over the talks contributed to the bullish sentiment amid the possibility that Russian oil buyers could face more economic pressure. The market was also supported by the expectations that the Fed will cut interest rates in September in light of the increase in U.S. consumer prices. The September WTI contract settled up $1.31 at $63.96 and continued to trade higher, posting a new high of $64.09 in the post settlement period. The October Brent contract settled up $1.21 at $66.84. The product markets ended the session in mixed territory, with the heating oil market settling down 83 points at $2.2345 and the RB market settling up 3.88 cents at $2.1092.
Technical Analysis: The crude market on Friday will be headline driven, with traders awaiting for the outcome of the U.S.-Russia meeting and the statements made by President Trump and Russia’s President at their joint press conference. The oil market is seen finding resistance at its high of $64.09, $64.34, $64.44, $64.58 and $65.11. Further resistance is seen at $66.75, $67.08, $67.74 and $ 67.89. However, support is seen at $62.58, $62.05, $61.94, $60.89, $60.15 and $58.36.
Fundamental News: U.S. President Donald Trump said he believed Russia’s President Vladimir Putin was ready to make a deal on ending the war with Ukraine but added that peace would likely require at least a second meeting involving Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskiy. Earlier, U.S. Secretary of State, Marco Rubio, said President Donald Trump will go into talks with Russian President Vladimir Putin on Friday hoping to achieve a halt to the fighting in the war in Ukraine, but added that a comprehensive solution to the conflict will take longer.
Russian President Vladimir Putin said that the United States was making “sincere efforts” to halt the war in Ukraine and suggested Russia and the U.S. could agree a nuclear arms deal as part of a wider effort to strengthen peace.
Bank of America projects an average surplus of 890,000 bpd of crude oil from July 2025 through June 2026, resulting in a global oil inventory build up of 100 million barrels. it reiterated its bearish outlook for prices in the second half of this year, with Brent averaging $63.50/barrel, temporarily breaking below $60/barrel. It said monetary/fiscal policy, a weaker U.S. dollar, OPEC+ discipline and lower U.S. volumes my trigger a rebound over $70/barrel by the middle of 2026. Bank of America continues to see long-dated Brent crude prices holding up in a $60-$80/barrel range and project a price recovery into the second half of 2026.
Phillips 66 has reduced gasoline output at its 258,000 bpd Bayway refinery in Linden, New Jersey, after a fire near the plant’s gasoline producing unit. An ancillary piece of equipment of the refinery’s fluid catalytic cracking unit caught fire and led to the production outage. The cause of the fire was not immediately clear. The refinery is expected to resolve the issue over the coming days and return to full production.
Production on a 75,000 bpd fluidic catalytic cracking unit was shut by a malfunction at Valero Energy’s 380,000 bpd Port Arthur, Texas refinery.
Early Market Call – as of 9:00 AM EDT
WTI – Sep $63.06, down 87 points
RBOB – Sep $2.0844, down 2.68 cents
HO – Sep $2.2210, down 1.74 cents
