Recap: The oil market traded lower on Monday as the market sentiment was weighed down by oversupply concerns. The market was pressured by Iraq stating that it increased its oil exports under an OPEC+ agreement. The expiring October WTI contract posted its trading range by mid-morning. The market traded to a high of $63.18 in overnight trading, with tensions rising in the Middle East over several Western nations recognizing a Palestinian state as well as in Eastern Europe after Estonia said Russian fighter jets entered its airspace without permission on Friday. However, the market gave up its gains and sold off to a low of $61.98 early in the session. The market later bounced off its low and retraced some of its losses ahead of the October contract’s expiration at the close. The October WTI contract went off the board down 4 cents at $62.64. Meanwhile, the November WTI contract also settled down 12 cents at $62.28 after it posted the day’s trading range from a high of $63.00 to a low of $61.61 by mid-morning. The November Brent contract settled down 11 cents at $66.57. The product markets ended the session in mixed territory, with the heating oil market settling down 66 points at $2.2923 and the RB market settling up 75 points at $1.9782.
Technical Analysis: The oil market is seen trending sideways on the first day the November WTI contract takes over the front of the curve. The market will continue to weigh the news of Iraq increasing its oil exports, the restart of oil exports from the Iraqi Kurdistan region via pipeline to Turkey against the geopolitical tensions in Russia and the Middle East. The market is seen finding support at its low of $61.61, $61.42, $61.06 and $60.99. Meanwhile, resistance is seen at $63.00, $63.35, $64.20, $64.32 and $64.39.
Fundamental News: Iraq’s SOMO said Iraq has increased oil exports following the gradual unwinding of voluntary production cuts under an OPEC+ agreement. SOMO’s Director General, Ali Nizar Al-Shatari, said the increase in Iraqi exports is expected to generate hundreds of millions of dollars in additional revenues at current price levels. He did not specify the size of the export increase but said that an additional 200,000 bpd of production would increase government coffers. Iraq’s oil exports averaged 3.38 million barrels per day in August, according to the oil ministry. SOMO expects September’s average exports to range from 3.4 million to 3.45 million bpd.
Oil officials said an Iraqi Oil Ministry delegation and the Kurdish regional government agreed on Monday on an initial deal with foreign oil firms to restart oil exports via pipeline to Turkey. The resumption of Kurdistan exports is subject to Iraqi cabinet approval on Tuesday. Oil officials said Iraq’s Oil Ministry will start procedures to restart crude exports from the Kurdistan region, with flows expected to resume via pipeline to Turkey within 48 hours.
IIR Energy reported that U.S. oil refiners are expected to shut in about 1 million bpd of capacity in the week ending September 26th, cutting available refining capacity by 249,000 bpd. Offline capacity is expected to increase to about 1.2 million bpd in the week ending October 3rd.
White House spokeswoman, Karoline Leavitt, said President Donald Trump is set to hold a series of high-stakes meetings at the United Nations this week, beginning with bilateral talks with UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres and leaders from Ukraine, Argentina, and the European Union, on Monday. She added that in a separate multilateral summit, President Trump will convene with leaders from Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Indonesia, Turkey, Pakistan, Egypt, the UAE, and Jordan.
Early Market Call – as of 8:45 AM EDT
WTI – Oct $63.08, up 72 cents
RBOB – Oct $1.99, up 1.12 cents
HO – Oct $2.3206, up 2.41 cents
