Recap: On Monday, the oil market continued to trend higher within last Wednesday’s trading range, after U.S. President Donald Trump rejected Iran’s response to the U.S. peace proposal, leaving the Strait of Hormuz effectively closed with no end in sight to the war. On Sunday, Iran’s response to the U.S. proposal focused on ending the war on all fronts, including where U.S. ally Israel is fighting Iran-backed Hezbollah militants. Iran also demanded compensation for war damage, emphasized its sovereignty over the Strait of Hormuz, and called on the United States to end its naval blockade, guarantee no further attacks, lift sanctions and remove a ban on Iranian oil sales. However, within hours President Trump dismissed Iran’s offer as “totally unacceptable”. The crude market rallied higher on its opening and posted a high of $100.37 as it retraced little more than 50% of its move from a high of $100.37 to a low of $88.66. However, the market erased some of its gains and sold off to a low of $96.13 by mid-morning. The market later bounced off its low and settled in a range from around $96 to $100 as President Trump said the ceasefire with Iran was “on life support”. The June WTI contract settled up $2.65 at $98.07 and the June Brent contract settled up $2.92 at $104.21. Meanwhile, the product markets ended the session higher, with the heating oil market settling up 6.95 cents at $3.9686 and the RB market settling up 7.31 cents at $3.5998.
Technical Analysis: The crude market will remain in its recent trading range as the market awaits for further developments amid the impasse between the U.S. and Iran. The market will likely remain range bound ahead of President Trump’s arrival in Beijing on Wednesday, when he is expected to discuss Iran among other topics with China’s President Xi Jinping. The oil market is seen finding resistance at $100.37, $110.93, $102.70, $105.48, $107.46 and $110.93. Meanwhile, support is seen at $96.13, $93.82, $89.85, $88.66. Further support is seen at $87.64, $85.50, $85.45, $80.56, $78.97 and $73.56.
Fundamental News: President Donald Trump said he will reduce the 18 cent federal gas tax for a yet to be determined period as U.S. fuel prices move higher due to the Iran war.
Saudi Arabia’s crude oil exports to China are set to fall further in June after buyers cut nominations because of costly prices linked to the U.S.-Iran conflict. Saudi Aramco will ship about 10 million barrels of oil to its customers in China next month or about 333,333 bpd. The number would mark a record low for data by Kpler and Reuters, and compared with an average 1.39 million bpd that Saudi Arabia shipped to China in 2025. Major Chinese refiners including Sinopec, Sinochem and Rongsheng Petrochemical have reduced their lifting for June.
According to a Reuters survey, OPEC oil output fell further in April to the lowest level in more than two decades as the U.S.-Israeli war with Iran effectively closed the Strait of Hormuz and forced export cuts. It reported that OPEC crude output in April fell by 830,000 bpd on the month to 20.04 million bpd. March’s figure was revised 700,000 bpd lower due to a change in the Saudi estimate. Kuwait experienced the group’s biggest decline in production in April, reflecting a whole month of disruption to exports. Saudi Arabia and Iraq also had further declines of 150,000 bpd to 7.65 million bpd and 200,000 bpd to 1.4 million bpd, respectively. The United Arab Emirates was the only Gulf member able to increase production by 100,000 bpd to 2 million bpd.
IIR Energy said U.S. oil refiners are expected to shut in about 414,000 bpd of capacity in the week ending May 15th, increasing available refining capacity by 180,000 bpd from the previous week. Offline capacity is expected to fall to 48,000 bpd in the week ending May 22nd.
Early Market Call – as of 8:40 AM EDT
WTI – June $101.43, up $3.18
RBOB – June $3.6936, up 8.99 cents
HO – June $4.0704, up 8.43 cents
