Recap: The oil market sold off sharply after President Donald Trump and Iran’s Deputy Foreign Minister said they reached an initial deal to end the war and resume traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. On Sunday, Pakistan’s Prime Minister announced that the U.S. and Iran will sign a memorandum of understanding in Switzerland on Friday. President Trump said the Strait of Hormuz would be open “toll free” and that the U.S. naval blockade of Iranian ports would also end. The crude market gapped lower on Sunday evening from $83.20 to $81.40 following the news of the peace agreement. The market partially backfilled its gap as it posted a high of $82.42 before it traded below the $80.00 level and posted a low of $79.70 in overnight trading. The market later settled in a sideways trading range from its low to about $80.90 during the remainder of the session, as the market remained cautious. Despite President Trump announcing that an agreement had been signed with Iran, it remained rangebound as the market was focused on how quickly Middle Eastern producers could resume oil production and exports following damage from the war and whether more ships will enter the region as ship owners remained cautious. The July WTI contract settled down $4.13 at $80.75 and the August Brent contract settled down $4.16 at $83.17. The product markets ended the session sharply lower, with the heating oil market settling down 13.79 cents at $3.2665 and the RB market settling down 10.26 cents at $2.9472.
Technical Analysis: The crude market will likely trade sideways as the market is likely awaiting to see the full text of the peace deal, which is not expected to be released until Friday after the agreement has been formally signed in Geneva. The market is also remaining cautious as it will take time for oil supply flowing through the Strait of Hormuz to reach the pre-war level of about 20 million bpd. Estimates of the full resumption of traffic vary from weeks to months. The oil market is seen finding support at $79.70, $77.92, $77.22, $75.95 and $71.64. Meanwhile, resistance is seen at its gap from $82.42 to $83.20, $86.31, $87.23, $88.35, $90.39, $91.61, $93.64 and $95.47.
Fundamental News: According to data from the Department of Energy, stocks of crude oil in the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve fell to 340.3 million barrels, the lowest level since 1983. Inventories in the SPR fell by 8.9 million barrels, the third steepest draw on record. The drawdowns are a part of a U.S. agreement to release 172 million barrels from the facility.
Shipping and maritime security sources say ensuring the Strait of Hormuz is safe from mines could delay a return to normal shipping traffic by weeks following a deal to reopen the waterway. According to assessments from five Western maritime security sources, the operation by conventional minesweepers and underwater drones could continue for 40 to 50 days before many insurance, shipping or oil companies are confident enough to sail through. That could potentially hold up tens of millions of barrels of oil, in addition to the oil supply from the Gulf already blocked since the United States and Israel attacked Iran on February 28th.
Citi cut its oil price forecast towards a previous bear case scenario, with new quarterly oil price forecasts for the third quarter at $75/barrel and for the fourth quarter at $70/barrel.
IIR Energy said U.S. oil refiners are expected to shut in about 26,000 bpd of capacity in the week ending June 19th, increasing available refining capacity by 119,000 bpd from the previous week. Offline capacity is expected to rise to 169,000 bpd in the week ending June 26th.
Early Market Call – as of 8:30 AM EDT
WTI – July $77.34, down $3.82
RBOB – July $2.8962, down 6.42 cents
HO – July $3.1590, down 10.51 cents
