Recap: The oil market posted an outside trading day on Tuesday as the February WTI contract expired at the close. The market, which traded mostly sideways during Monday’s shortened trading session due to the Martin Luther King, Jr. holiday, sold off to a low of $58.70 in overnight trading following the sharp losses in the equities market on Monday as fears of a renewed trade war escalated over the weekend. President Donald Trump threatened to impose additional 10% levies starting February 1st on goods imported from Denmark, Norway, Sweden, France, Germany, the Netherlands, Finland and Britain for opposing his push to acquire Greenland. However, the market quickly bounced off its low and retraced its losses as an upward revision of this year’s global economic growth estimate by the International Monetary Fund lent some support. The market was also supported by a weak dollar and better than expected fourth quarter Chinese GDP data. The crude market retraced more than 50% of its move from a high of $62.36 to a low of $58.70 as it rallied to a high of $60.68 ahead of the February contract’s expiration. The February WTI contract went off the board up 90 cents at $60.34 and the March contract settled up $1.02 at $60.36. The March Brent contract settled up 98 cents at $64.92. Meanwhile, the product markets ended the session higher, with the heating oil market settling up 10.09 cents at $2.3385 and the RB market settling up 3.86 cents at $1.8238.
Technical Analysis: While the market has turned its focus away from Iran as civil unrest subsided and reduced the likelihood of a U.S. attack that could disrupt supplies from the major producer, the market has now turned its attention to another geopolitical issue, a stand-off over Greenland, which is threatening the relationship between the U.S. and its NATO alliance. The market will remain headline driven as traders monitor the escalation in tensions between the U.S. and Europe. The crude market is seen finding resistance at $60.68, $60.96, $61.14 and $62.36. Meanwhile, support is seen at $58.70, $58.45, $57.61 followed by $55.97 and $55.76.
Fundamental News: Bloomberg reported that the last tankers carrying sanctioned Venezuelan crude to Asia are set to arrive in the coming day, effectively drawing to a close China’s easy access to a source of cheap oil that has helped sustain its refining sector. The ships, which loaded and set said before a U.S. blockade on Venezuela began last month, will likely join a fleet already idling in waters off Malaysia and China.
On Tuesday, Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen said she would not abandon Greenland and as President Trump has not ruled out use of the military, she would not rule it out either.
Following a meeting with the Danish Defense Minister and the Greenlandic Foreign Affairs Minister, NATO’s Secretary General, Mark Rutte said NATO will keep working with Denmark and Greenland on security of the Arctic area. On Tuesday, U.S. President Donald Trump said he had a “very good” telephone call with NATO’s Secretary General concerning Greenland.
Russian President Vladimir Putin’s envoy, Kirill Dmitriev, said that talks with U.S. envoys was constructive and that more and more people now understand the Russian position on Ukraine peace.
Operations at four Libyan oil terminals halted on Monday due to bad weather. Engineers said the stoppages at the Ras Lanuf, Zueitina, Brega and Es Sider terminals will also continue on Tuesday.
Industry sources said oil production at Kazakhstan’s vast Tengiz oil field could be halted for another 7-10 days after shutting down on Sunday, cutting crude exports via the Caspian Pipeline Consortium. On Monday, Kazakh oil producer Tengizchevroil, led by Chevron, said that it had temporarily halted production at the Tengiz and Korolev oilfields after an issue affected power distribution systems.
Early Market Call – as of 8:35 AM EDT
WTI – Mar $60.80, up $1.28
RBOB – Feb $1.8455, up 3.89 cents
HO – Feb $2.4202, up 10.7 cents
