Recap: The crude market posted an inside trading day and settled higher after attacks by the U.S. and Iran increased concerns over the ceasefire. The crude market initially opened higher and traded to $70.97 before it quickly sold off to a low of $69.32 following an Axios report of the U.S. and Iran ending their hostilities after both countries accused each other of breaking the ceasefire. The market was pressured amid the news of U.S. and Iranian technical teams meeting in the coming days to work on the implementation of an interim peace deal. Iran’s Foreign Minister said Iranian and Omani experts will also start talks on redefining transit paths through the Strait of Hormuz in the coming days. The oil market traded mostly sideways for much of the day before it rallied to a high of $71.15 in afternoon trading. The August WTI contract settled up $1.52 at $70.75, while the August Brent contract settled up $1.16 at $73.15. Meanwhile, the product markets ended the session in mixed territory, with the heating oil market settling up 12.35 cents at $3.3317 and the RB market settling down 10.43 cents at $3.0614.
Technical Analysis: The oil market is seen continuing to trade in a sideways trading range as the market awaits for the outcome of the meeting between the U.S. and Iran scheduled to take place this week. The market is seen finding support at $70.38, $68.56, $67.50, $66.96, $63.86 and $63.16. Meanwhile, resistance is seen at $71.15, $71.86, $72.50, $73.18, $74.45, $77.34, $78.14, $79.18, $80.15 and $81.00 to $81.68.
Fundamental News: According to the Department of Energy, crude oil stocks in the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve fell by 5.5 million barrels to 325.7 million barrels, the lowest level since May 1983. The drawdowns are a part of a U.S. agreement to release 172 million barrels from the facility.
The United States said a high-level meeting on Iran would be held in Doha on Tuesday with President Donald Trump’s top envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner attending while technical talks would also continue on the sidelines. President Trump said that Iran had requested a meeting and that it would take place in the Qatari capital without giving any details.
A source said Iranian and U.S. technical teams working on the implementation of a memorandum of understanding are set to meet in Doha in the coming days. The source added that mediators have established communications channels to de-escalate any incidents and technical talks are set to continue. However, Iran’s Deputy Foreign Minister, Kazem Gharibabadi, said that technical working group meetings under the Iran-U.S. memorandum of understanding were not scheduled for this week. He also said consultations between Iran and Qatar regarding the U.S. commitments were continuing as planned but that technical working group talks in Doha had not been confirmed.
According to BloombergNEF, oil refining capacity is set to increase by 1.1 million bpd this year, reversing a decline of 690,000 bpd in 2025. Much of the gains are due in the fourth quarter when projects in India and China come online.
A power outage on Sunday forced the shutdown of Venezuela’s 645,000 bpd Amuay refinery, though the electric service was later restored. Amuay, which is part of the 955,000-bpd Paraguana Refining Center, was the second refinery without electricity following two deadly earthquakes in the country.
Early Market Call – as of 9:00 AM EDT
WTI – July $71.09, up 67 cents
RBOB – July $3.0406, down 86 points
HO – July $3.3965, up 8.9 cents
