Recap: The crude oil market gave up its early gains and ended the session lower as traders assessed the impact on output in U.S. crude producing regions from winter storms and the impact of any tensions between the U.S. and Iran following U.S. President Donald Trump’s renewed warning to Iran last week. The oil market was underpinned by the freeze-offs due to the winter storm that swept across the country over the weekend. According to Energy Aspects, oil production outages peaked on Saturday and production losses eased on Monday, with Permian shut-ins estimated at about 700,000 bpd and production set to be fully restored by January 30th. The market traded to a high of $61.71 in overnight trading. However, it gave up some of its gains amid the expectations that the shut in output would be restored by the end of the week. The market later erased its gains and sold off to a low of $60.32 ahead of the close. The March WTI contract settled down 44 cents at $60.63 and the March Brent contract settled down 29 cents at $65.59. The product markets ended the session in mixed territory, with the heating oil market settling up 13.95 cents at $2.5680 amid the winter storm and colder temperatures expected over the next week, and the RB market settling down 3.09 cents at $1.8201.
Technical Analysis: The oil market will remain within its recent trading range as any losses are limited by the market’s concerns over geopolitical risks amid the tension between the U.S. and Iran. The market will continue to trade sideways as the market weighs the uncertainty over how the Trump administration will handle Iran against the Ukraine-Russia peace talks continuing and OPEC stating that they will likely stay the course of production at their next meeting. The market is seen finding resistance at $61.71, $62.20 followed by $63.96 and $64.75. Meanwhile, support is seen at $60.32, $59.52, $58.96, $58.53, $58.32, $57.65, $57.48 followed by $55.89 and $55.65.
Fundamental News: Analysts and traders estimated that U.S. oil producers lost up to 2 million bpd or about 15% of national production over the weekend, as a winter storm moved across the country, straining energy infrastructure and power grids. Consultancy Energy Aspects estimated that oil production outages peaked on Saturday, with the Permian Basin likely to have experienced the largest share of that decline at around 1.5 million bpd. Production losses eased on Monday, with Permian shut-ins estimated at about 700,000 bpd and production set to be fully restored by January 30th.
IIR Energy reported that U.S. oil refiners are expected to shut in about 1.14 million bpd of capacity in the week ending January 30th, cutting available refining capacity by 27,000 bpd.
A malfunction triggered flaring in the East Plant of Citgo Petroleum’s 165,000 bpd Corpus Christi, Texas refinery. A community warning notice did not say which units were affected by the malfunction and if it was related to the unusually cold weather that descended to the Gulf Coast of Texas overnight.
On Saturday, Exxon Mobil Corp said it was idling units at its 564,440 bpd Baytown, Texas crude oil refining and petrochemical complex due to freezing weather expected over the next three days.
Pemex reported work activities that may cause flaring at its 312,500 bpd Deer Park, Texas refinery.
Delek’s 73,000 bpd Big Spring, Texas refinery reported emissions caused by process equipment faults due to extreme low ambient temperatures.
Cenovus Energy’s 172,000 bpd Lima, Ohio refinery experienced mechanical issues brought about by the winter storm.
Calumet Specialty Products’ 60,000 bpd Shreveport, Louisiana refinery suffered from winter storm-related issues.
Early Market Call – as of 8:45 AM EDT
WTI – Mar $61.57, up 74 cents
RBOB – Feb $1.8352, up 1.18 cents
HO – Feb $2.5449, down 2.63 cents
