Recap: The oil market traded mostly sideways on Monday as it continued to trade within last Thursday’s trading range. The market weighed the expectations that the U.S. government shutdown would soon come to an end against the continuing concerns about an oversupply in the market. On Sunday, the U.S. Senate moved forward on a measure aimed at reopening the federal government and ending the 40-day shutdown that has sidelined federal workers, delayed food aid and impacted air travel. Analysts were concerned about any impact from flight cancellations on U.S. jet fuel demand. Airlines canceled more than 2,800 U.S. flights and delayed more than 10,200 flights on Sunday, the worst day for disruptions since the start of the shutdown. The crude market breached its previous high as it posted a high of $60.48 in overnight trading. However, it gave up its gains and sold off to a low of $59.41 by mid-day. The market later bounced off its low and settled in a sideways trading range during the remainder of the session. The December WTI contract ended the session up 38 cents at $60.13 and the January Brent contract settled up 43 cents at $64.06. The product markets ended the session in positive territory, with the heating oil market settling up 2.83 cents at $2.5104 and the RB market settling up 3.08 cents at $1.9711.
Technical Analysis: The oil market will remain in its recent sideways trading range. The market will keep an eye on the government shutdown negotiations, with the market expecting a large fall in jet fuel demand if the government stalemate is not ended by this week. The crude market is seen finding support at $59.41, $59.32, $59.28, $58.83, $58.49 and $57.34. Meanwhile, resistance is seen at $60.48, $60.51, $61.09, $61.50, $62.17 and $62.59.
Fundamental News: The Kremlin said it wanted the Ukraine war to end as soon as possible but that efforts to resolve it had stalled.
IIR Energy said U.S. oil refiners are expected to shut in about 500,000 bpd of capacity in the week ending November 14th, increasing available refining capacity by 303,000 bpd from the previous week.
Two Indian state refiners have purchased 5 million barrels of crude oil from spot markets via tenders as they continue to scout for alternatives to Russian supplies. Hindustan Petroleum Corp bought 2 million barrels each of U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude and Abu Dhabi’s Murban crude for January arrival. Mangalore Refinery and Petrochemicals Ltd bought one million barrels of Basra Medium crude for January 1st-7th delivery. Indian refiners are scouting for alternatives after U.S. President Donald Trump imposed sanctions on Rosneft and Lukoil in an attempt to pressure President Vladimir Putin to end the war in Ukraine.
Sources stated that Lukoil has declared force majeure at Iraq’s giant West Qurna-2 oilfield after Western sanctions on the Russian oil major affected its operations. Iraq has since halted all cash and crude payments to the company. Lukoil sent a letter to Iraq’s oil ministry last Tuesday saying there are force majeure conditions preventing it from continuing normal operations at the West Qurna-2 field. A senior Iraqi oil industry official said that if the reasons behind the force majeure are not resolved within six months, Lukoil will shut production and exit the project entirely.
Early Market Call – as of 8:25 AM EDT
WTI – Dec $60.61, up 56 cents
RBOB – Dec $1.9864, up 2.52 cents
HO – Dec $2.5410, up 4.54 cents
