Recap: The crude market posted an inside trading day and settled higher on Monday in the absence of further peace talks between the U.S. and Iran and shipments through the Strait of Hormuz remained limited. The oil market retraced Friday’s losses after U.S. President Donald Trump over the weekend called off a trip by his envoys and said Iran should call the U.S. when it wants a deal. The market remained supported by the diplomatic standoff. The market posted a low of $94.59 early in the morning as work continued to bridge gaps between the U.S. and Iran. The market later bounced off its low and continued to trend higher, posting a high of $97.67 ahead of the close. The June WTI contract settled up $1.97 at $96.37 and the June Brent contract settled up $2.90 at $108.23. The product markets ended the session higher, with the heating oil market settling up 8.73 cents at $3.9747 and the RB market settling up 2.84 cents at $3.4910.
Technical Analysis: The oil market will remain supported as shipping through the Strait of Hormuz remains mostly stalled and Iran’s latest proposal is unlikely to satisfy the U.S., which has stated that nuclear issues must be dealt with from the onset of negotiations. The crude market is seen finding support at $94.59, $92.68, $92.30, $90.97, $88.68, $87.64, $86.39, $85.50, $85.45 and $78.97. Meanwhile, resistance is seen at $97.67, $97.85, $98.39, $101.17, $104.34, $109.17, $117.63 and $119.48.
Fundamental News: Shipping data showed that at least seven ships, mainly dry bulk vessels, crossed the Strait of Hormuz in the past 24 hours, in line with muted activity in recent days, while talks between Iran and the United States have stalled. According to ship tracking data from Kpler and separate satellite analysis from data analytics specialists SynMax, the vessels included ships leaving from Iraqi ports and one dry bulk vessel from an Iranian port.
Goldman Sachs has raised its oil price forecasts for the fourth quarter to $90/barrel for Brent crude and $83/barrel for U.S. West Texas Intermediate on lower output from the Middle East. It estimates 14.5 million bpd Mideast crude output losses driving global oil inventories to draw at a record pace of 11-12 million bpd in April. It estimates that the global oil market will swing from a 1.8 million bpd surplus in 2025 to a 9.6 million bpd deficit in the second quarter of 2026. It estimates that global oil demand will fall 1.7 million bpd in the second quarter and 100,000 bpd in 2026.
Citi raised its outlook for average Brent crude prices for the rest of 2026, warning prices could increase to $150/barrel if oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz remain disrupted through the end of June. The bank lifted its base-case forecast for Brent to $110, $95 and $80/barrel for the second, third and fourth quarter of 2026, respectively, assigning a 50% probability to that scenario. Citi also pushed back its expected reopening of the Strait of Hormuz to the end of May, from mid-to-late April, after the United States and Iran failed to reach an agreement during their second round of peace talks.
IIR Energy said U.S. oil refiners’ capacity is expected to increase by 409,000 bpd in the week ending May 1st from the previous week, pushing their total offline refining capacity down to 799,000 bpd. Offline capacity is expected to fall to 627,000 bpd in the week ending May 8th.
Valero reported planned maintenance work scheduled to be performed on Monday at its 195,000 bpd McKee, Texas refinery.
BP’s Whiting refinery in Indiana experienced a brief power outage on Sunday that led to flaring but no fire.
Early Market Call – as of 9:00 AM EDT
WTI – June $99.57, up $2.89
RBOB – May $3.5280, up 2.81 cents
HO – May $3.9425, up 22 points
