Recap: The oil market posted an outside trading day after the market erased its overnight gains as the market was weighed down by the prospects of a market surplus. The U.S.-China trade tensions are adding to concerns about an economic slowdown and weaker energy demand. Meanwhile, uncertainty remains over what may happen to Russian oil supply, with U.S. President Donald Trump on Sunday reiterating a warning that Washington would maintain “massive” tariffs on India unless it stopped buying Russian oil. The oil market rallied to a high of $57.81 in overnight trading before it erased its gains and sold off to a low of $56.35 by mid-morning. The market continued to lose ground following three consecutive weeks of losses. Last week, the IEA increased its estimates for a market surplus and oil stocks on the water are near levels last seen during the pandemic. The market later bounced off its low and settled in a sideways trading pattern during the remainder of the session. The November WTI contract ended the session down 2 cents at $57.52, while the December Brent contract settled down 28 cents at $61.01. The product markets ended the session lower, with the heating oil market settling up 1.21 cents at $2.1921 and the RB market settling down 75 points at $1.8302.
Technical Analysis: The crude market is seen trading sideways as the market retraces some of its recent losses ahead of the November contract’s expiration at the close on Tuesday. The market will also remain headline driven as it looks for further developments on the U.S.-China trade tensions as well as the talks on ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine. The market is seen finding support at $56.35, $55.30 and $54.89. Meanwhile, resistance is seen at $57.81, $58.86, $59.11, $59.42, $59.64, $59.82, $60.17 and $60.41.
Fundamental News: On Sunday, U.S. President Donald Trump reiterated that India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi told him India will stop buying Russian oil, while warning that India would continue paying “massive” tariffs if it did not do so.
Russian Deputy Foreign Minister, Andrey Rudenko, said that Russian oil companies continue to ship oil to India.
Russia’s Foreign Ministry said that any peace deal for Ukraine should address the root causes of the conflict to ensure a fundamental and long-term peace.
U.S. President Donald Trump said that he expects to work out a fair trade deal with Chinese President Xi Jinping and plans to expedite the delivery of nuclear-powered submarines to Australia, signaling both a willingness to ease tensions with Beijing and a push to strengthen defense ties with a key ally in the Indo-Pacific. He made the comments ahead of bilateral talks in Washington with Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese.
Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei rejected an offer of renewed talks from U.S. President Donald Trump and denied his assertion that the United States has destroyed Iran’s nuclear capabilities.
Vortexa reported today that crude oil stored on tankers that have been stationary for at least seven days fell by -12% w/w to 78.44 million bbl in the week ended October 17th.
IIR Energy said U.S. oil refiners are expected to shut in about 1.1 million bpd of capacity in the week ending October 24th, increasing available refining capacity by 196,000 bpd. Offline capacity is expected to fall to 981,000 bpd in the week ending October 31st.
Early Market Call – as of 9:20 AM EDT
WTI – Nov $57.66, up 26 cents
RBOB – Nov $1.8240, down 34 points
HO – Nov $2.1874, up 48 points
