Oil Markets Weigh Refinery Outages and Escalating Geopolitical Risks

December 26, 2025

Overhead view of scattered black and white newspapers with visible headlines and articles, creating a textured background.

Fundamental News: IIR Energy said U.S. oil refiners are expected to shut in about 145,000 bpd of capacity in the week ending December 26th, increasing available refining capacity by 41,000 bpd.

Pemex said it was performing work activities that may cause flaring at its 312,500 bpd Deer Park, Texas refinery.

Shell reported the potential for increased flaring and noise due to a process interruption at its 85,000 bpd site in Corunna, Canada.

The Kremlin said Russia’s President Vladimir Putin has been briefed by envoy Kirill Dmitriev on the trip to the United States and Moscow will now formulate its position on U.S. proposals for a possible Ukrainian peace deal.

Ukraine’s Naftogaz said Russia attacked Ukraine’s oil and gas infrastructure overnight, causing equipment to shut down.

TankerTrackers.com said Panama-flagged very large crude carrier Kelly, which had departed from Venezuela carrying oil last week, has returned to Venezuelan waters following the U.S. interception of more tankers. On Saturday, the U.S. Coast Guard intercepted the Panama flagged tanker Centuries, which was carrying some 1.9 million barrels of Venezuelan Merey heavy crude, and was pursuing a separate empty vessel that was on its way to the OPEC country. More than a dozen loaded vessels are in Venezuela waiting for new directions from their owners after the U.S. seized the supertanker Skipper earlier this month and targeted two additional vessels over the weekend.

A U.S. official and a source said the U.S. Coast Guard is waiting for additional forces to arrive before potentially attempting to board and seize a Venezuela-linked oil tanker it has been pursuing since Sunday. A U.S. official said the Coast Guard officials on the Gerald Ford aircraft carrier were from a Maritime Security Response Team and at the time too far from Bella 1 to carry out a boarding operation. The administration could ultimately choose to not board and seize the vessel. The White House said that the United States was still in “active pursuit of a sanctioned dark fleet vessel that is part of Venezuela’s illegal sanctions evasion.”

​​​​​​Oil shipments from Kazakhstan via the Caspian Pipeline Consortium are set to fall by a third in December to the lowest since October 2024 after a Ukrainian drone attack damaged facilities at the main CPC export terminal. CPC Blend loadings will fall to 1.14 million bpd from 1.7 million bpd in the initial plan. In November, Ukrainian drones hit the CPC terminal located near Russia’s Black Sea port of Novorossiysk. Since November 29th, the terminal has operated with a single mooring point, SPM-1, after SPM-2 was taken offline following the drone attack. SPM-3 was already out of operation, since mid-November, for maintenance, which has been held up by bad weather.

Early Market Call – as of 6:55 AM EDT
WTI – Feb $58.31 down 9 cents
RBOB – Jan $1.7384, down 1.18 cents
HO – Jan $2.1562, down 61 points

This market update is provided for information purposes only and is not intended as advice on any transaction nor is it a solicitation to buy or sell commodities. Sprague makes no representations or warranties with respect to the contents of such news, including, without limitation, its accuracy and completeness, and Sprague shall not be responsible for the consequence of reliance upon any opinions, statements, projections and analyses presented herein or for any omission or error in fact. The views expressed in this material are through the period as of the date of this report and are subject to change based on market and other conditions. This document contains certain statements that may be deemed forward-looking statements. Please note that any such statements are not guarantees of any future performance or results and actual results or developments may differ materially from those projected. The whole or any part of this work may not be reproduced, copied, or transmitted or any of its contents disclosed to third parties without Sprague’s express written consent.