Recap: The oil market traded lower on Tuesday as President Donald Trump’s 50-day deadline for Russia to end the war in Ukraine raised hopes that sanctions could be avoided and eased concerns about any immediate supply disruption. The crude market traded lower in overnight trading as the possible sanctions have been sidelined for the next couple of weeks. The market later retraced some of its losses and traded to a high of $67.13 early in the morning. In a yo-yo fashion, the market once again gave up its gains and posted a low of $66.22 by mid-day and settled in a sideways trading range ahead of the close. The August WTI contract ended the session 46 cents lower at $66.52, while the September Brent contract settled down 50 cents at $68.71. However, the product markets settled higher, with the heating oil market ending the session up 1.54 cents at $2.4052 and the RB market ending the session up 42 points at $2.1696.
Technical Analysis: The crude market will remain in its sideways trading range and seek further direction from the weekly petroleum stocks reports, which are expected to show draws in crude stocks of less than 1 million barrels in the latest week. Its daily stochastics are trending sideways. The market is seen finding support at its low of $66.22, $65.97, $65.40, $65.23, $64.67, $64.50 and $64.00. Meanwhile, resistance is seen at $67.13, $67.53, $67.94, $68.34, $69.65 followed by $71.20 and $72.90.
Fundamental News: OPEC said the global economy may perform better than expected in the second half of the year despite trade conflicts and refineries’ crude intake would remain elevated to meet an increase in summer travel, helping to support the demand outlook. In a monthly report, OPEC left its forecasts for global oil demand growth unchanged in 2025 and 2026 after reductions in April, saying the economic outlook was strong. OPEC said global refinery crude intake posted a sharp increase of 2.1 million bpd in June from May as refiners returned from maintenance, a sign of a stronger oil market and added that throughput was likely to remain high. OPEC’s demand forecasts are at the higher end of the industry range, as the agency expects a slower energy transition than some other forecasters. OPEC’s report also showed that in June OPEC+ produced 41.56 million bpd, up 349,000 bpd from May. This is slightly less than the 411,000 bpd increased called for by the group’s increase in its June quotas. The actual hike was smaller than the headline increase in quotas partly because some nations, such as Iraq, cut output as part of a pledge to make further reductions for earlier pumping above targets.
According to a BBC interview published on Tuesday, U.S. President Donald Trump said he was “not done” with Russian President Vladimir Putin, hours after he said he was disappointed in Putin and threatened Moscow with sanctions.
Three sources close to the Kremlin said Russian President Vladimir Putin intends to keep fighting in Ukraine until the West engages on his terms for peace, unfazed by Donald Trump’s threats of tougher sanctions, and added that his territorial demands may widen as Russian forces advance.
The Financial Times reported that U.S. President Donald Trump has privately encouraged Ukraine to step up deep strikes on Russian territory, even asking Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy whether he could strike Moscow if the U.S. provided long-range weapons.
The Port of Corpus Christi said it moved 51.1 million tons of commodities through the Corpus Christi Ship Channel in the second quarter of 2025. It said crude oil shipments in the first half of 2025 totaled 65.2 million tons, up more than 3.8% over the same period last year. It said LNG volumes increased nearly 10.8% to 8.5 million tons.
Early Market Call – as of 8:35 AM EDT
WTI – Aug $65.86, down 89 cents
RBOB – Aug $2.1561, down 1.72 cents
HO – Aug $2.3823, down 2.98 cents
