Recap: The oil market traded lower on Thursday in light of a news report of the U.S. and Iran reaching an agreement. The market traded higher in overnight trading after Iran’s Revolutionary Guards said they had targeted a U.S. airbase in response to an earlier U.S. attack in the port city of Bandar Abbas. The escalation in hostilities followed President Donald Trump’s rejection of a report that he was close to a compromise deal with Iran. The crude market rallied to a high of $92.52 as the attacks highlighted the fragile ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran that took effect in early April. The market later retraced some of its gains, trading back towards its early lows. The market sold off further, extending its losses to over $1.50 as it posted a low of $87.11. Axios reported that the U.S. and Iran reached an agreement for 60-day ceasefire extension and start of talks on Iran’s nuclear program. The oil market later bounced off its low as traders awaited further news on whether President Donald Trump will give his final approval on the deal. The July WTI contract settled up 22 cents at $88.90, while the July Brent contract settled down 58 cents at $93.71. The product markets ended the session higher, with the heating oil market settling up 2.12 cents at $3.6187 and the RB market settling up 5.15 cents at $3.1852.
Technical Analysis: The crude market will likely remain in a sideways trading range and look to the latest headlines for further direction, in light of an Iranian source stating that the text of a potential agreement had not yet been finalized or confirmed. The source added that the media reports claiming the agreed had been finalized were false. The oil market is seen finding support at $87.11, $86.76, $86.13, $84.28, $82.52-$82.46, $82.09 and $77.22. Meanwhile, resistance is seen at $89.58, $92.52, $93.69, $94.02, $94.70-$94.73, $96.16, $98.30 and $99.43.
Fundamental News: Bloomberg reported that no commercial vessels were spotted transiting the Strait of Hormuz on Thursday morning as tensions increased following a second round of U.S. strikes against Iranian military targets this week. According to ship-tracking data compiled by Bloomberg, the halt follows six two-way crossings on Wednesday, including a Turkish Suezmax entering to load cargo in the Persian Gulf. Iran claimed that several ships attempted unauthorized entry into the Persian Gulf last night, some of which turned back, while two were stopped. Tehran also said 26 ships crossed the strait in the past day, which could include smaller, coastal vessels. On Wednesday, U.S. President Donald Trump said no single nation would be allowed to control the Strait of Hormuz, underscoring one of the central obstacles to securing a lasting agreement with Iran.
TotalEnergies SE CEO Patrick Pouyanne said the company made the decision to buy large amounts of Middle East crude in March after its traders noticed the US Navy massing ships near the Persian Gulf in February. TotalEnergies bought around 70 Oman and Murban cargoes or about 35 million barrels. Meanwhile, TotalEnergies CEO warned that a prolonged blockade threatens the global economy, adding that he does not expect free navigation to return soon.
The IEA said global investment in natural gas projects is set to increase by more than 10% this year to $330 billion, its highest level in 10 years, while upstream oil spending declines for a third straight year. As global energy markets remain disrupted by the Iran war, companies are accelerating investment in other geographies and increasing spending on renewables, LNG and coal to shore up supply security. The IEA’s World Energy Investment 2026 report said capital flows to energy sector will grow 5% in 2026 to reach $3.4 trillion, despite Middle East disruptions. The IEA said Middle East oil and gas investment expected to fall 1% in 2026.
Early Market Call – as of 8:50 AM EDT
WTI – July $87.25, down $1.28
RBOB – June $3.16, down 3.51 cents
HO – June $3.5969, down 2.11 cents
