Recap: The oil market on Friday continued to trade lower within a downward trend channel as crude continued to flow through the Strait of Hormuz despite the strike on a cargo vessel near Oman on Thursday. While Iran again reasserted its right to control shipping through the Strait of Hormuz and warned Gulf countries against siding with the U.S., oil tankers were continuing to exit the waterway. The market was also pressured as Saudi Aramco resumed its oil loadings at its Ras Tanura oil terminal in the Gulf following a nearly four-month halt. The crude market posted a high of $71.86 in overnight trading and continued to trend lower throughout the morning. It traded to a low of $68.56 by mid-day and later settled in a sideways trading range during the remainder of the session. The August WTI contract ended the session down $2.69 at $69.23 and the August Brent contract settled down $3.27 at $71.99. The product markets ended the session lower, with the heating oil market settling down 9 cents at $3.2082 and the RB market settling down 7.02 cents at $2.9571.
Technical Analysis: The crude market will likely continue to trend lower, barring any major news over the weekend that derails the progress made following the signing of the interim peace deal between the U.S. and Iran. The market is seen finding support at $68.56, $67.50, $66.96, $63.86 and $63.16. Meanwhile, resistance is seen at $70.35, $71.86, $72.50, $73.18, $74.45, $77.34, $78.14, $79.18, $80.15 and $81.00 to $81.68.
Fundamental News: U.S. President Donald Trump blamed Iran for an attack on a ship near Oman which he said had violated their ceasefire.
Iran’s Deputy Foreign Minister, Kazem Gharibabadi, said safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz could not be guaranteed without coordination with Iran, and that failure to coordinate could result in the suspension of any designated route. According to Bloomberg, Oman has notified its allies’ ships traversing the Strait of Hormuz that they may have to pay a toll.
Rystad Energy’s MENA research director Aditya Saraswat said that the supply picture is improving. The consultancy now estimates that shut-in production across the Gulf has fallen to 9.6 million bpd in mid-June, down from 11.7 million bpd just three weeks ago and expects a full supply recovery in the region by the end of the year.
Bloomberg reported that a week after the U.S. and Iran signed their interim peace deal, crude exports from the Persian Gulf have recovered to at least 75% of prewar levels. Traffic continued to flow on Friday despite an attack on a container vessel sailing through the Strait of Hormuz.
IIR Energy said U.S. oil refiners are expected to shut in about 476,000 bpd of capacity in the week ending June 26th, cutting available refining capacity by 219,000 bpd. Offline capacity is expected to decrease to 274,000 bpd in the week ending July 3rd and further to 160,000 bpd in the subsequent week.
U.S. refining capacity fell by 263,000 bpd or 1.43%, in 2025, driven by the planned conversion of a major Houston refinery and a Los Angeles-area plant that shuttered citing market dynamics in California. Marathon Petroleum remains the largest refiner with 2.986 million bpd or 16.4% of national capacity.
Early Market Call – as of 8:35 AM EDT
WTI – July $70.02, down 22 cents
RBOB – July $3.0014, up 2.13 cents
HO – July $3.2593, up 2.02 cents
