Recap: The oil market on Wednesday retraced its previous losses and ended the session higher amid the continuing stalemate in U.S.-Iran peace talks. On Tuesday, U.S. President denied reports by Axios and CNN that cited U.S. officials as saying he was willing to give Iran sanctions relief and release frozen Iranian funds in return for steps by Iran on its nuclear program. Meanwhile, Qatar said it hoped that shuttle diplomacy between Iran and the U.S. could lead to a breakthrough. The oil market posted a low of $88.58 on the opening on Tuesday evening before it began to retrace its previous losses. The market extended its gains to over $2.50 as it posted a high of $91.96 by mid-day. The crude market later gave up some of its gains and settled in a sideways trading range during the remainder of the session. The November WTI contract ended the session up $1.04 at $90.42 and the November Brent contract settled up 94 cents at $103.53. The product markets ended the session higher, with the October heating oil contracts going off the board up 5.90 cents at $4.9569 and the October RB contract settling up 15.96 cents at $3.4378.
Technical Analysis: The crude market is seen remaining its sideways trading range amid the lack of any breakthrough in peace talks between the U.S. and Iran. The market is seen finding support at $88.58, $88.18, $86.13, $85.92 and $84.24. Meanwhile, resistance is seen at $91.96, $94.74, $95.52, $96.54, $96.78, $97.22, $97.67, $98.01, $99.81 followed by $100.61 and $101.69.
Fundamental News: Analysts have raised their 2026 oil price forecasts with benchmark Brent crude expected to average nearly $90/barrel as disruption to Gulf exports offsets concerns over demand growth. A September survey of 30 economists and analysts forecast that Brent crude would average $89.05/barrel in 2026, up from a previous forecast of $85.08/barrel and U.S. crude would average $83.90/barrel, up from a previous estimate of $80.20/barrel.
The EIA reported that U.S. crude oil production in July increased 104,000 bpd to 13.948 million bpd. U.S. crude oil exports fell to 3.556 million bpd in July, down from 4.735 million bpd in June. U.S. total oil demand in July fell by 2.7% or 580,000 bpd to 20.612 million bpd. The EIA reported that gasoline demand in July fell by 2.5% or 231,000 bpd on the year to 8.946 million bpd, while distillate demand fell by 3.8% or 146,000 bpd to 3.685 million bpd.
The Dallas Fed said oil and gas production in Texas, Louisiana and New Mexico increased in the third quarter of 2026. Oil and gas activity also expanded in those states over that same time period. On average, respondents expect a WTI oil price of $88/barrel in a wide range of $70 to $126, and a Henry Hub natural gas price of $3.29 per million British thermal units at year-end 2026.
Sources stated that OPEC+ oil-producing countries are likely to keep their oil production targets steady for November when they meet on Sunday. The sources said no final decision had been made. A separate OPEC+ ministerial group called the Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee, which does not decide policy, also meets on Sunday to review the market.
IIR Energy said U.S. oil refiners are expected to shut in about 545,000 bpd of capacity in the week ending October 2nd, increasing available refining capacity by 298,000 bpd. Offline capacity is expected to increase to 668,000 bpd in the week ending October 9th.
Early Market Call – as of 9:15 AM EDT
WTI – Nov $91.29, up 87 cents
RBOB – Nov $3.2870, up 2.65 cents
HO – Nov $4.5947, down 9.34 cents
