Recap: The oil market on Friday continued on its upward trend, posting a weekly gain of 4.68% after the market breached its resistance line late Thursday afternoon. The market remained well supported by optimism surrounding global trade negotiations as well as further U.S. sanctions imposed on Iran’s oil exports. On Thursday, the U.S. Treasury Department sanctioned a third Chinese independent refinery over purchases of Iranian oil, signaling continued pressure on Iran ahead of an expected fourth round of nuclear talks on Sunday. The crude market traded sideways and quickly posted a low of $59.89 in overnight trading before it continued to trade higher. It retraced more than 63% of its move from a high of $64.87 to a low of $55.30 as it posted a high of $61.45 early in the morning. The June WTI later settled in a sideways trading range during the remainder of the session and settled up $1.11 at $61.02. The July Brent contract settled up $1.07 at $63.91. Meanwhile, the product markets ended the session in positive territory, with the heating oil market settling up 2.64 cents at $2.0664 and the RB market settling up 2.3 cents at $2.1084.
Technical Analysis: The crude market will be headline driven following this weekend’s initial trade talks between the U.S. and China. The market will also look for further developments from the fourth round of talks between the U.S. and Iran over its nuclear program scheduled to take place on Sunday. The crude market is seen finding resistance at $61.45, $62.07 and $63.92. Meanwhile, support is seen at $59.89, $59.35, $57.74, $57.03, $55.30 and $54.67.
Fundamental News: U.S. President Donald Trump said that 80% tariffs on Chinese goods “seems right” as representatives prepared for trade talks this weekend. U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and chief trade negotiator Jamieson Greer will meet China’s Vice Premier and economic tsar He Lifeng in Switzerland for talks that could be the first step toward resolving their trade disputes. White House economic adviser Kevin Hassett said signs in advance of weekend U.S.-China trade talks in Switzerland are promising and positive. White House Press Secretary, Karoline Leavitt, said President Donald Trump remains firm the U.S. is not going to unilaterally reduce tariffs on Chinese goods without concessions from China. Meanwhile, China’s Vice Foreign Minister, Hua Chunying, said the country has full confidence in its ability to manage U.S. trade issues, a day before officials from both sides are set to meet in Switzerland to discuss the tariffs they have imposed on each other.
Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi said Iran has agreed to hold a fourth round of indirect nuclear talks with the U.S. on Sunday in Oman. The fourth round of negotiations, initially scheduled for May 3rd in Rome, was postponed, with mediator Oman citing “logistical reasons”. Separately, a source said U.S. President Donald Trump’s Middle East envoy Steve Witkoff will travel to Oman on Sunday for a fourth round of talks on Iran’s nuclear program.
China’s crude oil imports in April slowed from the previous month but increased by 7.5% on the year due to increased deliveries of sanctioned shipments and as state refiners built stocks during maintenance shutdowns. According to the General Administration of Customs, China’s crude oil imports in April totaled 48.06 million metric tons or 11.69 million bpd.
Baker Hughes reported that U.S. energy firms this week cut the number of oil and natural gas rigs operating to their lowest level since January. The oil and gas rig count fell by six to 578 in the week ending May 9th. It said oil rigs fell by five to 474 this week, the lowest level since January, while gas rigs were unchanged at 101.
Early Market Call – as of 8:45 AM EDT
WTI – Jun $63.42, up $2.36
RBOB – Jun $2.1598, up 4.06 cents
HO – Jun $2.1366, up 6.51 cents
