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Refined Products

Recap: Today's upward mobility was product driven, as traders reacted to reports of delays in restarting the refineries that were knocked off line late last week. This news sparked a 4.3 percent surge in gasoline, pushing the November contract to a high of $1.4008. Gains were pared with this spot contract settling at $1.3853, up 4.39 cents. Heating oil followed RBOB higher, peaking the session at $1.5682, severing gains to settle at $1.5483, up 3.52. November WTI climbed 3 percent, topping the session at $46.94, before trimming gains to settle at $46.26, up 72 cents. Brent for November delivery jumped $1.12, to settle at $49.25. 


Fundamental News: Genscape reported that crude stocks in Cushing, Oklahoma fell by 150,885 barrels to 55,552,975 in the week ending Friday, October 2nd. Stocks fell by 14,400 barrels from Tuesday.


Shell Petroleum Development Co lifted a force majeure on exports from the Forcados terminal effective Monday following a reopening of the Trans Forcados Pipeline. The force majeure was declared on September 30, 2015 following a leak on the line that affected crude receipts at the terminal.


India's Economic Times newspaper reported that Saudi Arabia's Oil Minister Ali al-Naimi believes economic producers will prevail over higher cost suppliers and OPEC's share of the market will increase. In comments suggesting that Saudi Arabia was sticking to its policy of defending market share rather than supporting prices, he said the fall in oil prices was less of a problem than fluctuations.


The US and its NATO allies denounced Russia on Monday for violating Turkish air space along the frontier with Syria and Turkey threatened to respond if provoked again. NATO held an emergency meeting of ambassadors of its 28 member states to respond to what Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg called unacceptable violations of Turkish air space after Turkey said a Russian jet had crossed its frontier. The alliance said NATO members strongly protest and condemn incursions into Turkish and NATO territory. A senior US defense official said Washington doubted the incursions were an accident.


IIR reported that US oil refiners are expected to shut in 1.597 million bpd of capacity in the week ending October 9th, up 92,000 bpd on the week. IIR expects offline capacity to fall to 1.291 million bpd in the week ending October 16th.


The President of PDVSA, Eulogio del Pino, said crude was circulating at the 955,000 bpd Paraguana Refinery Center and that processing units would be up and running between Wednesday and Thursday.


About 1.2 million tons of diesel are expected to be booked from the US Gulf Coast plus an additional 800,000 tons from Asia and the Middle East. Total Russian diesel exports in October are set to reach 2.425 million tons, up 188,000 tons from a month earlier. High sulfur exports are expected to reach 1.187 million tons, up 268,000 tons from a month earlier.

Libya's oil production fell to 300,000 bpd, less than 25% of what it produced before the 2011 fall of Muammar Gaddafi, mostly because of insecurity and closed pipelines.


Former US Fed Chairman, Ben Bernanke, said mediocre job numbers of recent months are bad news for the Fed's plan to raise rates. He said easy money is justified by the need to get inflation moving towards the Fed's 2% inflation target.

EarlyMarket Call - as of 9:10 AM EDT

WTI - Nov $46.55 up 29 cents
RBOB - Nov $1.3971 up 1.18 cents
ULSD - Nov $1.5602 up 1.19 cents

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Natural Gas

Monday, October 5th, saw the front-month NYMEX Natural Gas Futures Contracts open at $2.435, nearly two cents below Friday’s closing price of $2.451.  Emerging confidently into the market, prices ascended through the opening hour of the day to reach the intraday high of $2.491 at 10:10AM.  Despite a few periods of temporary growth, the contract withdrew for the balance of the day as moderate temperatures have kept demand low.  November closed relatively flat on Monday at $2.450.

This morning in Globex, WTI Crude was up four cents; Natural Gas was up two cents; and, Heating Oil and Gasoline were up a penny.

Cash prices were higher in both New York and New England.

Natural Gas Glossary

For access to Sprague’s full Natural Gas Market Watch Report including commentary not posted here, please send your request to or call 1-855-466-2842.